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<p>Short-duration heavy precipitation poses a persistent and significant risk to the densely populated Yangtze River Delta (YZR) region. This study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at a convection-permitting scale (∼4&#xa0;km) to simulate and project hourly precipitation over the YZR. We conducted a 10-year historical simulation (1998–2007) and three pseudo-global warming (PGW) experiments for the late 21st century (2070–2099) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The convection-permitting regional climate model (CPM) demonstrates robust skill in reproducing key characteristics of observed hourly precipitation including its diurnal cycle, event duration, peak intensity, and extremes. Future projections indicate hourly precipitation intensity is projected to increase, alongside a rising frequency of heavy precipitation events. Notably, both short-duration, intense precipitation events and small-coverage extreme precipitation events are expected to become more frequent, thereby heightening regional climate risks. Such precipitation shifts are driven by more frequent occurrences of high daily convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) values. These findings underscore the critical value of the CPM for high-resolution climate risk assessment and the development of targeted adaptation strategies in the YRD.</p>

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Convection-permitting simulations of hourly precipitation in the Yangtze River Delta region: evaluation and future projections

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月26日

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  • Yating Xiong,
  • Guangtao Dong,
  • Zhiyu Jiang,
  • Wei Mei,
  • Jianping Tang

摘要

Short-duration heavy precipitation poses a persistent and significant risk to the densely populated Yangtze River Delta (YZR) region. This study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at a convection-permitting scale (∼4 km) to simulate and project hourly precipitation over the YZR. We conducted a 10-year historical simulation (1998–2007) and three pseudo-global warming (PGW) experiments for the late 21st century (2070–2099) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The convection-permitting regional climate model (CPM) demonstrates robust skill in reproducing key characteristics of observed hourly precipitation including its diurnal cycle, event duration, peak intensity, and extremes. Future projections indicate hourly precipitation intensity is projected to increase, alongside a rising frequency of heavy precipitation events. Notably, both short-duration, intense precipitation events and small-coverage extreme precipitation events are expected to become more frequent, thereby heightening regional climate risks. Such precipitation shifts are driven by more frequent occurrences of high daily convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) values. These findings underscore the critical value of the CPM for high-resolution climate risk assessment and the development of targeted adaptation strategies in the YRD.