<p>Under the background of global climate change, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has exhibited diversity and become increasingly important to precipitation. This study evaluates the relationships between six pairs of Central/Eastern Pacific (CP/EP) El Niño indices and summer precipitation over China during the El Niño developing phase. The correlation patterns for all EP indices are consistent, characterized by reduced precipitation over southeast China and north China, and enhanced precipitation over the Yangtze River valley. In contrast, the CP indices exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity. Composite analysis reveals that the CP El Niño generally induces a “dry-north and wet-south” dipole precipitation pattern across China, forced by an anomalous cyclonic circulation over the subtropical western North Pacific. This anomalous circulation generates anomalous easterlies, which divert moisture from the Yangtze River valley to southeast China, while weakening the summer monsoon. These processes increase precipitation over southeast China but decrease it over the Yangtze River valley and north China. Additionally, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation occurs over northeast China and suppresses local precipitation. Among different CP indices, the El Niño Modoki Index (EMI) best captures precipitation anomalies and associated physical processes over southeast China and the Yangtze River valley, while all indices show limited capability in capturing precipitation anomalies over northeast China. The uncertainties in the relationship between the CP index and precipitation mainly stem from the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the indices. This study deepens the understanding of how diverse ENSO modulate summer precipitation over China and can offer scientific insights for climate prediction and index selection.</p>

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More inconsistency in relationships between summer precipitation over China and Central-Pacific El Niño indices than Eastern-Pacific El Niño indices

  • Xinming Zhang,
  • Guocan Wu

摘要

Under the background of global climate change, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has exhibited diversity and become increasingly important to precipitation. This study evaluates the relationships between six pairs of Central/Eastern Pacific (CP/EP) El Niño indices and summer precipitation over China during the El Niño developing phase. The correlation patterns for all EP indices are consistent, characterized by reduced precipitation over southeast China and north China, and enhanced precipitation over the Yangtze River valley. In contrast, the CP indices exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity. Composite analysis reveals that the CP El Niño generally induces a “dry-north and wet-south” dipole precipitation pattern across China, forced by an anomalous cyclonic circulation over the subtropical western North Pacific. This anomalous circulation generates anomalous easterlies, which divert moisture from the Yangtze River valley to southeast China, while weakening the summer monsoon. These processes increase precipitation over southeast China but decrease it over the Yangtze River valley and north China. Additionally, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation occurs over northeast China and suppresses local precipitation. Among different CP indices, the El Niño Modoki Index (EMI) best captures precipitation anomalies and associated physical processes over southeast China and the Yangtze River valley, while all indices show limited capability in capturing precipitation anomalies over northeast China. The uncertainties in the relationship between the CP index and precipitation mainly stem from the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the indices. This study deepens the understanding of how diverse ENSO modulate summer precipitation over China and can offer scientific insights for climate prediction and index selection.