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<p>Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) since industrialization have significantly altered precipitation and temperatures across Northern Hemisphere continents, and thus the occurrences of compound dry and hot extremes (CDHEs). Here, we employ five model pairs from the CMIP6 Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) to isolate the biogeophysical effects of LULCC over 1980–2014 on summer (June–August) CDHEs over North America (NA), Europe (EU), and China (CN), quantifying changes in CDHE occurrence, intensity, duration, and frequency. Multi-model ensemble means indicate that LULCC reduces CDHE occurrence and cumulative days by 0.1–0.5 events yr⁻¹ and 0.4–1.2 days yr⁻¹ in NA and EU, whereas it enhances these metrics by up to 0.1 events yr⁻¹ and 0.6 days yr⁻¹ in CN, with intensity and duration exhibiting considerable spatial heterogeneity. Mechanistic analyses reveal that these contrasting responses are shaped by both local biogeophysical feedbacks and non-local atmospheric circulation adjustments. Locally, LULCC-induced shifts in sensible and latent heat flux partitioning and evapotranspiration dominate the surface energy redistribution, outweighing radiative forcing effects. At the large scale, LULCC drives an anomalous anticyclonic circulation and moisture divergence over CN, but anomalous cyclonic patterns and enhanced moisture convergence over NA and EU. These results demonstrate that LULCC plays a critical role in shaping compound extreme risks through coupled local and non-local pathways, underscoring the need for improved representation of land–atmosphere interactions in Earth system models.</p>

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Impacts of land use and land cover changes on compound dry and hot extremes over Northern hemisphere

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Pinya Wang,
  • Yuanlin Zheng,
  • Mengyun Li,
  • Yu Song,
  • Yang Yang,
  • Jianping Tang,
  • Hong Liao

摘要

Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) since industrialization have significantly altered precipitation and temperatures across Northern Hemisphere continents, and thus the occurrences of compound dry and hot extremes (CDHEs). Here, we employ five model pairs from the CMIP6 Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) to isolate the biogeophysical effects of LULCC over 1980–2014 on summer (June–August) CDHEs over North America (NA), Europe (EU), and China (CN), quantifying changes in CDHE occurrence, intensity, duration, and frequency. Multi-model ensemble means indicate that LULCC reduces CDHE occurrence and cumulative days by 0.1–0.5 events yr⁻¹ and 0.4–1.2 days yr⁻¹ in NA and EU, whereas it enhances these metrics by up to 0.1 events yr⁻¹ and 0.6 days yr⁻¹ in CN, with intensity and duration exhibiting considerable spatial heterogeneity. Mechanistic analyses reveal that these contrasting responses are shaped by both local biogeophysical feedbacks and non-local atmospheric circulation adjustments. Locally, LULCC-induced shifts in sensible and latent heat flux partitioning and evapotranspiration dominate the surface energy redistribution, outweighing radiative forcing effects. At the large scale, LULCC drives an anomalous anticyclonic circulation and moisture divergence over CN, but anomalous cyclonic patterns and enhanced moisture convergence over NA and EU. These results demonstrate that LULCC plays a critical role in shaping compound extreme risks through coupled local and non-local pathways, underscoring the need for improved representation of land–atmosphere interactions in Earth system models.