Dominant role of circulation induced “Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia” pattern in the record-breaking cold event over Central Eurasia in December 2023
摘要
In mid-December 2023, an extreme cold event struck Central Eurasia. Interestingly, the record-breaking cold surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in Central Eurasia coincided with warm SAT anomalies in the Arctic, forming a distinct Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern. The occurrence of such an extraordinary cold event under global warming necessitates an investigation into its causes and underlying mechanisms. In this study, we attribute this event from dynamic and thermodynamic perspectives using a dynamical adjustment approach. Results show that the dynamic component of SAT dominates the magnitude and daily variability of the SAT anomalies during this event. Importantly, it is responsible for the WACE pattern of the event, which explains approximately 75% of the Central Eurasian cooling. This dynamic WACE pattern is primarily induced by a strong anticyclonic circulation anomaly over northern Eurasia. Although the anticyclonic circulation is intrinsic to atmospheric variability, large sea ice loss over the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) that persisted from November to December 2023 plays a key role in intensifying this anticyclonic anomaly and the associated WACE pattern. Additionally, the occurrence of Ural blocking during the event acts to amplify the WACE pattern. Thermodynamic SAT makes a relatively minor cooling contribution, influenced mainly by persistent above-normal snow cover extent preceding the event. Whereas, the warming effect of anthropogenic forcing has weakened the intensity of this extreme cold event. These results provide important insights for understanding cold extremes over Central Eurasia in a warming climate.