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<p>Heatwaves are expected to occur more frequently and intensely in a warming climate, leading to more mortality. Global surface temperature exceeded 1.5&#xa0;°C warming above the preindustrial period for the first time in 2024, most likely reaching 1.5&#xa0;°C warming level within a 20-year window average addressed by Paris Agreement (Bevacqua et al. 2025). Therefore, it is urgent to assess how heatwaves will change under different warming levels and identify their dominant drivers. In this study, changes in heatwaves across 46 land reference regions were examined at 1.5 or 2.0&#xa0;°C warming level under the intermediate (SSP245) and very high (SSP585) emission scenarios using multiple climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The dominant driving factors of heatwaves were identified based on random forest regression and Shapley additive explanation method, including surface air temperature (TAS) as regional effect and global sea surface temperature (SST) as remote effect via large-scale atmospheric circulation. Results showed that CMIP6 models could reproduce the spatial patterns of heatwave frequency (HWF) and amplitude (HWA). Globally, the occurrence of heatwaves was projected to increase, by around 15 and 26&#xa0;days at 1.5 and 2.0&#xa0;°C warming for the HWF, and about 2.0 and 2.9&#xa0;°C for the HWA, respectively. TAS dominantly contributed to global HWF changes under SSP245 scenario, accounting for 2.3 or 1.5&#xa0;days at 1.5 or 2.0&#xa0;°C warming, respectively, while SST acted a dominant factor with individual effect of 2.6 or 3.4&#xa0;days under SSP585. Among the 46 reference regions, the HWF across more than half of the regions were dominantly contributed by regional TAS under SSP245 scenario, while the HWA over majority regions were primarily decided by the TAS under both scenarios. These findings present essential insights to anticipate and respond possible heatwave-related risks.</p>

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Intensifying heatwaves under 1.5 or 2.0 °C warming climate by increasing regional surface air temperature and global SST

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月26日

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  • Peihua Qin,
  • Zhenghui Xie

摘要

Heatwaves are expected to occur more frequently and intensely in a warming climate, leading to more mortality. Global surface temperature exceeded 1.5 °C warming above the preindustrial period for the first time in 2024, most likely reaching 1.5 °C warming level within a 20-year window average addressed by Paris Agreement (Bevacqua et al. 2025). Therefore, it is urgent to assess how heatwaves will change under different warming levels and identify their dominant drivers. In this study, changes in heatwaves across 46 land reference regions were examined at 1.5 or 2.0 °C warming level under the intermediate (SSP245) and very high (SSP585) emission scenarios using multiple climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The dominant driving factors of heatwaves were identified based on random forest regression and Shapley additive explanation method, including surface air temperature (TAS) as regional effect and global sea surface temperature (SST) as remote effect via large-scale atmospheric circulation. Results showed that CMIP6 models could reproduce the spatial patterns of heatwave frequency (HWF) and amplitude (HWA). Globally, the occurrence of heatwaves was projected to increase, by around 15 and 26 days at 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming for the HWF, and about 2.0 and 2.9 °C for the HWA, respectively. TAS dominantly contributed to global HWF changes under SSP245 scenario, accounting for 2.3 or 1.5 days at 1.5 or 2.0 °C warming, respectively, while SST acted a dominant factor with individual effect of 2.6 or 3.4 days under SSP585. Among the 46 reference regions, the HWF across more than half of the regions were dominantly contributed by regional TAS under SSP245 scenario, while the HWA over majority regions were primarily decided by the TAS under both scenarios. These findings present essential insights to anticipate and respond possible heatwave-related risks.