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<p>The Northern Hemisphere experienced an unprecedented heat event in August 2022, which generated serious socioeconomic impacts peaking in densely populated areas. Unlike previous research that focused on the role of Pakistan’s heavy precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature, we identify a new dynamical linkage between mid-high latitudes precipitation over northern Baikal region and pan-Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies using the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (3P-DGAC). This dynamic pathway originates from the northern Baikal region, where precipitation anomalies in July 2022 altered local soil moisture, which in turn regulated surface heat fluxes and thereby triggered a local meridional circulation. The descending branch of this local meridional circulation was located over the Yangtze River basin, making a critical contribution to the regional extreme heat. Meanwhile, anomalous subtropical jet variability and planetary-scale Rossby wave trains propagated the influence of preceding precipitation anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere, producing ripple effects that significantly modulated thermal regimes in key regions. Our novel findings indicate the mechanism linking regional hydroclimate anomalies to hemispheric heat extremes, and identify the mid-high latitudes external forcing as critical drivers of extreme events. This discovery provides a newfound scientific foundation for improving concurrent extreme heat predictions, and fostering international cooperation to address these challenges.</p>

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Ripple effects of extreme precipitation in the northern baikal region on concurrent extreme heat events

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月11日

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  • Jianjun Peng,
  • Shujuan Hu,
  • Zhiyou Jing,
  • Yuping Guan,
  • Yanxin Zhao,
  • Yu Liu,
  • Zhihai Zheng

摘要

The Northern Hemisphere experienced an unprecedented heat event in August 2022, which generated serious socioeconomic impacts peaking in densely populated areas. Unlike previous research that focused on the role of Pakistan’s heavy precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature, we identify a new dynamical linkage between mid-high latitudes precipitation over northern Baikal region and pan-Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies using the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (3P-DGAC). This dynamic pathway originates from the northern Baikal region, where precipitation anomalies in July 2022 altered local soil moisture, which in turn regulated surface heat fluxes and thereby triggered a local meridional circulation. The descending branch of this local meridional circulation was located over the Yangtze River basin, making a critical contribution to the regional extreme heat. Meanwhile, anomalous subtropical jet variability and planetary-scale Rossby wave trains propagated the influence of preceding precipitation anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere, producing ripple effects that significantly modulated thermal regimes in key regions. Our novel findings indicate the mechanism linking regional hydroclimate anomalies to hemispheric heat extremes, and identify the mid-high latitudes external forcing as critical drivers of extreme events. This discovery provides a newfound scientific foundation for improving concurrent extreme heat predictions, and fostering international cooperation to address these challenges.