<p>The Maritime Continent is a key center of tropical deep convection where extreme precipitation (EP) events are strongly modulated by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). This study examines the energetic controls of MJO-modulated EP activity over the Maritime Continent using reanalysis data and a column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget framework that separates various energetic processes. Results show that EP probability is strongly phase-locked to the MJO, with substantial enhancement during phases 3–5 (active phase) and pronounced suppression during phases 7, 8 and 1 (suppressed phase). During the active phase, the atmosphere exhibits a recharged MSE profile, sustained by positive net radiative flux and modest horizontal MSE import, which offset strong vertical MSE export by deep convection. In contrast, the suppressed phase is characterized by a discharged MSE profile, determined by the balance of horizontal and vertical MSE export with enhanced surface latent heating under clear-sky, windy conditions. Decomposition of MSE transport indicates anomalous vertical motion acting on the mean-state MSE stratification as the primary driver of vertical MSE export in the active phase, while horizontal MSE transport plays a stronger contribution during the suppressed phase. These results emphasize the contrasting recharge–discharge dynamics that regulate EP activity across MJO phases and highlight the importance of accurately representing energy transport processes and surface–atmosphere flux partitioning in models to improve prediction of tropical rainfall extremes.</p>

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

Energetic controls of MJO-modulated extreme precipitation over the Maritime Continent: a composite analysis

  • Adelina Lumbangaol,
  • Jia-Yuh Yu

摘要

The Maritime Continent is a key center of tropical deep convection where extreme precipitation (EP) events are strongly modulated by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). This study examines the energetic controls of MJO-modulated EP activity over the Maritime Continent using reanalysis data and a column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget framework that separates various energetic processes. Results show that EP probability is strongly phase-locked to the MJO, with substantial enhancement during phases 3–5 (active phase) and pronounced suppression during phases 7, 8 and 1 (suppressed phase). During the active phase, the atmosphere exhibits a recharged MSE profile, sustained by positive net radiative flux and modest horizontal MSE import, which offset strong vertical MSE export by deep convection. In contrast, the suppressed phase is characterized by a discharged MSE profile, determined by the balance of horizontal and vertical MSE export with enhanced surface latent heating under clear-sky, windy conditions. Decomposition of MSE transport indicates anomalous vertical motion acting on the mean-state MSE stratification as the primary driver of vertical MSE export in the active phase, while horizontal MSE transport plays a stronger contribution during the suppressed phase. These results emphasize the contrasting recharge–discharge dynamics that regulate EP activity across MJO phases and highlight the importance of accurately representing energy transport processes and surface–atmosphere flux partitioning in models to improve prediction of tropical rainfall extremes.