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<p>In recent decades, the global hydrological cycle has been significantly influenced by anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gas (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosol (AA) changes, alongside natural climate variability. The precipitation trends in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly over South Asia and East Asia, have shown strong links to the radiative forcing caused by GHGs and AAs. In this study, we explore the long-term trends in regional precipitation by analysing the coupling between downwards surface solar radiation (DSRS) and evapotranspiration via historical simulations from the CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs), including experiments driven by individual forcings—GHG, AA, and natural forcings only—from 1850 to 2014. Our results reveal a substantial decline in downwards solar radiation over India and Eastern China (− 0.4&#xa0;W/m<sup>2</sup> per year) beginning in the 1960s, attributed primarily to aerosol emissions. Focusing on these regions, we analyse hydrological responses over the period of 1950–2014. These findings indicate a pronounced drying trend in Eastern China, characterised by reductions in both evapotranspiration and precipitation, which are largely driven by aerosols. In contrast, India exhibited increasing trends in evapotranspiration and precipitation, especially from the 1980s onwards, dominated by GHG-induced warming, which overrides the dimming effects of aerosols. ERA5-based land–atmosphere coupling diagnostics indicate that evapotranspiration (ET) is predominantly energy-limited in Eastern China (correlation of ET–DSRS ≈ + 0.49) and moisture-limited in India ( correlation of ET–soil moisture ≈ + 0.51). Hierarchical clustering of CMIP6 models further shows that inter-model spread in hydrological responses is closely linked to differences in simulated coupling regimes. These results underscore the dominant role of anthropogenic aerosols in driving energy-limited hydrological drying over Eastern China, while GHG-driven warming governs moisture-driven hydrological intensification over India, highlighting the need for improved representation of surface energy–water interactions in climate models.</p>

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Connecting the regional hydrological cycle trends to greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, and natural forcings under climate change: A multi-model evaluation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月11日

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  • J. Bharath,
  • T. V. Lakhsmi Kumar,
  • K. Koteswara Rao,
  • Hemanth Kumar Alladi,
  • Humberto Barbosa,
  • R. K. Mall

摘要

In recent decades, the global hydrological cycle has been significantly influenced by anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gas (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosol (AA) changes, alongside natural climate variability. The precipitation trends in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly over South Asia and East Asia, have shown strong links to the radiative forcing caused by GHGs and AAs. In this study, we explore the long-term trends in regional precipitation by analysing the coupling between downwards surface solar radiation (DSRS) and evapotranspiration via historical simulations from the CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs), including experiments driven by individual forcings—GHG, AA, and natural forcings only—from 1850 to 2014. Our results reveal a substantial decline in downwards solar radiation over India and Eastern China (− 0.4 W/m2 per year) beginning in the 1960s, attributed primarily to aerosol emissions. Focusing on these regions, we analyse hydrological responses over the period of 1950–2014. These findings indicate a pronounced drying trend in Eastern China, characterised by reductions in both evapotranspiration and precipitation, which are largely driven by aerosols. In contrast, India exhibited increasing trends in evapotranspiration and precipitation, especially from the 1980s onwards, dominated by GHG-induced warming, which overrides the dimming effects of aerosols. ERA5-based land–atmosphere coupling diagnostics indicate that evapotranspiration (ET) is predominantly energy-limited in Eastern China (correlation of ET–DSRS ≈ + 0.49) and moisture-limited in India ( correlation of ET–soil moisture ≈ + 0.51). Hierarchical clustering of CMIP6 models further shows that inter-model spread in hydrological responses is closely linked to differences in simulated coupling regimes. These results underscore the dominant role of anthropogenic aerosols in driving energy-limited hydrological drying over Eastern China, while GHG-driven warming governs moisture-driven hydrological intensification over India, highlighting the need for improved representation of surface energy–water interactions in climate models.