Scholarlink

<p>The Tarim River Basin (TRB) has exhibited a significant moistening trend since the 1960s, yet the underlying seasonal mechanisms remain insufficiently understood. Based on CN05.1 gridded observational data and ERA5 reanalysis from 1961 to 2022, this study investigates the long-term seasonal precipitation trends through: (1) decomposing precipitation variability into contributions from changes in frequency (precipitation days) and intensity; (2) characterizing atmospheric stratification in terms of relative humidity, static stability, and vertical motion; (3) diagnosing vertically integrated moisture transport by separating convergent and advective components; and (4) quantifying the regional moisture budget. Results indicate that precipitation over TRB has increased across all seasons, with the most pronounced rise occurring in summer, primarily accompanied by enhanced precipitation intensity. This intensified summer precipitation is associated with elevated low-level humidity, reduced static stability below 400&#xa0;hPa, and sustained ascending motion. These atmospheric changes are attributed to a strengthening of the lower-tropospheric easterly jet along the eastern TRB and enhanced southerly moisture inflow from the northern Tibetan Plateau, which converges with cross-mountain westerlies. Precipitation changes in other seasons are comparatively modest. From a moisture budget perspective, although background westerly flows contribute noticeably to moisture supply, they do not constitute the dominant source. The most effective moisture transport originates from the southern boundary and the summer easterly corridor. These findings suggest that future precipitation evolution in the TRB will be highly sensitive to variability and long-term changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Dynamic drivers of precipitation variability in the tarim river basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月16日

查看全文
  • Xiaoyu Li,
  • Xianyu Yang,
  • Lin Zhao,
  • Peili Wu,
  • Hao Chen,
  • Biao Long,
  • Xianhong Meng

摘要

The Tarim River Basin (TRB) has exhibited a significant moistening trend since the 1960s, yet the underlying seasonal mechanisms remain insufficiently understood. Based on CN05.1 gridded observational data and ERA5 reanalysis from 1961 to 2022, this study investigates the long-term seasonal precipitation trends through: (1) decomposing precipitation variability into contributions from changes in frequency (precipitation days) and intensity; (2) characterizing atmospheric stratification in terms of relative humidity, static stability, and vertical motion; (3) diagnosing vertically integrated moisture transport by separating convergent and advective components; and (4) quantifying the regional moisture budget. Results indicate that precipitation over TRB has increased across all seasons, with the most pronounced rise occurring in summer, primarily accompanied by enhanced precipitation intensity. This intensified summer precipitation is associated with elevated low-level humidity, reduced static stability below 400 hPa, and sustained ascending motion. These atmospheric changes are attributed to a strengthening of the lower-tropospheric easterly jet along the eastern TRB and enhanced southerly moisture inflow from the northern Tibetan Plateau, which converges with cross-mountain westerlies. Precipitation changes in other seasons are comparatively modest. From a moisture budget perspective, although background westerly flows contribute noticeably to moisture supply, they do not constitute the dominant source. The most effective moisture transport originates from the southern boundary and the summer easterly corridor. These findings suggest that future precipitation evolution in the TRB will be highly sensitive to variability and long-term changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation.