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<p>Climate impact analysis has become necessary due to rapid changes in global climate and the occurrence of extreme events. This study presents grid-wise performance evaluation and ensembling of NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 to determine suitable climate models for the Krishna Basin under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5. Performance indicators were used to evaluate the climate model and Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and Group Decision Making (GDM) methods to rank them. The best five models were ensembled from the 35 available climate models using the REA method to capture historical precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature variability over Krishna Basin. Spatio-temporal variation of ensembled data of precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature was analyzed for the near future (2015–2039), mid-future (2040–2070), and far future (2071–2100) periods. The annual average precipitation is projected to increase by 9.39%, 18.13%, and 23.3% in the near, mid, and far future, respectively, compared to the observed period (1970–2014). Similarly, the annual average maximum temperature is projected to rise by 0.53&#xa0;°C, 1.35&#xa0;°C, and 1.92&#xa0;°C and annual average minimum temperature is projected to rise by 0.85&#xa0;°C, 1.51&#xa0;°C, and 2.12&#xa0;°C in three future periods, respectively. This study contributes to refining Climate models for hydro-climatological applications, providing valuable insights for climate studies, water resource management, planning, and adaptation in the context of changing climate.</p>

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Evaluation of projected changes in precipitation and temperature under NEX-GDDP CMIP6 scenario driven by climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月16日

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  • Pravesh Kumar,
  • Venkata Reddy Keesara,
  • Eswar Sai Buri

摘要

Climate impact analysis has become necessary due to rapid changes in global climate and the occurrence of extreme events. This study presents grid-wise performance evaluation and ensembling of NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 to determine suitable climate models for the Krishna Basin under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5. Performance indicators were used to evaluate the climate model and Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and Group Decision Making (GDM) methods to rank them. The best five models were ensembled from the 35 available climate models using the REA method to capture historical precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature variability over Krishna Basin. Spatio-temporal variation of ensembled data of precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature was analyzed for the near future (2015–2039), mid-future (2040–2070), and far future (2071–2100) periods. The annual average precipitation is projected to increase by 9.39%, 18.13%, and 23.3% in the near, mid, and far future, respectively, compared to the observed period (1970–2014). Similarly, the annual average maximum temperature is projected to rise by 0.53 °C, 1.35 °C, and 1.92 °C and annual average minimum temperature is projected to rise by 0.85 °C, 1.51 °C, and 2.12 °C in three future periods, respectively. This study contributes to refining Climate models for hydro-climatological applications, providing valuable insights for climate studies, water resource management, planning, and adaptation in the context of changing climate.