<p>Currently, subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of spring drought in Northern China (NC) remains a non-negligible scientific and operational challenge. Although stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) is commonly recognized as a critical factor in extended-range climate forecasting, its potential role in modulating NC spring drought remains poorly understood. Using both reanalysis and multi-model simulations, this study reveals a robust linkage between boreal winter SPV intensity anomalies and NC drought in the following spring, highlighting the SPV’s role as a precursor in improving seasonal drought predictability. Further analysis demonstrates that winter SPV intensity modulates tropospheric northern annular mode (NAM) mainly through influencing the following spring SPV intensity and the timing of the final stratospheric warming (SFW), subsequently leading to NC spring drought. During March of strong SPV years, both NAM and Arctic Oscillation (AO) persist in positive phase. Rossby waves propagate southeastward from the polar region, through northern Europe, to East Asia, inducing a strong anticyclonic anomaly over Lake Baikal, favorable for a drier/wetter eastern/western NC. In April, the strong SPV collapses, triggering a shift of NAM and AO to their negative phase. Consequently, the descent motion and moisture divergence over central NC lead to the local drought. During May, following the weak SPV collapse, the differences of NAM/AO index decrease. A convergence of wave activity fluxes over eastern NC stimulates cyclonic anomalies in strong SPV years, favorable for a wetter/drier eastern/central NC.</p>

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Influence of winter stratospheric polar vortex intensity on spring drought in northern China

  • Jinyu Zhang,
  • Ping Yue,
  • Qiang Zhang,
  • Jinhu Yang,
  • Pengcheng Yan,
  • Suping Wang,
  • Hong Li

摘要

Currently, subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of spring drought in Northern China (NC) remains a non-negligible scientific and operational challenge. Although stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) is commonly recognized as a critical factor in extended-range climate forecasting, its potential role in modulating NC spring drought remains poorly understood. Using both reanalysis and multi-model simulations, this study reveals a robust linkage between boreal winter SPV intensity anomalies and NC drought in the following spring, highlighting the SPV’s role as a precursor in improving seasonal drought predictability. Further analysis demonstrates that winter SPV intensity modulates tropospheric northern annular mode (NAM) mainly through influencing the following spring SPV intensity and the timing of the final stratospheric warming (SFW), subsequently leading to NC spring drought. During March of strong SPV years, both NAM and Arctic Oscillation (AO) persist in positive phase. Rossby waves propagate southeastward from the polar region, through northern Europe, to East Asia, inducing a strong anticyclonic anomaly over Lake Baikal, favorable for a drier/wetter eastern/western NC. In April, the strong SPV collapses, triggering a shift of NAM and AO to their negative phase. Consequently, the descent motion and moisture divergence over central NC lead to the local drought. During May, following the weak SPV collapse, the differences of NAM/AO index decrease. A convergence of wave activity fluxes over eastern NC stimulates cyclonic anomalies in strong SPV years, favorable for a wetter/drier eastern/central NC.