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<p>The summer atmospheric water cycle over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is crucial to regional climate and water resources. However, simulations and projections of the TP’s atmospheric water cycle using convection-permitting models have not been well addressed. In this study, based on a set of decade-long convection-permitting (at a resolution of 3.3&#xa0;km) and convection-parameterized (at a resolution of 13.2&#xa0;km) regional simulations with Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Weather and Climate Model (ICON) over the TP, we demonstrate that the convection-permitting ICON simulation shows evident added value in capturing the summer atmospheric water cycle across the TP, with reduced wet biases in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and moisture convergence. The reduction in the simulated precipitation in ICON_3.3&#xa0;km is primarily balanced by the reduction of total moisture convergence, which is associated with the weaker water vapor inflow across the southern boundary of the TP. Further sensitivity experiments suggest that the explicit convection in ICON_3.3&#xa0;km, rather than the increased horizontal resolution, is the main factor for this improvement. The explicit convection weakens the Indian summer monsoon circulation and reduces the conversion of advected and evaporated moisture to precipitation over the TP. Future convection-permitting projections with the pseudo-global-warming experiment suggest a significant intensification of the TP’s summer atmospheric water cycle, followed by the enhanced water vapor inflow, particularly along the southwestern boundary of the TP. Despite the increased precipitation and evapotranspiration, the precipitation recycling ratio decreases, indicating a greater dependence on external moisture sources. These findings enhance our understanding of the TP’s water cycle and its future changes.</p>

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Enhanced atmospheric water cycle and intensified future change over the Tibetan Plateau in convection-permitting regional climate simulations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月19日

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  • Liwei Zou,
  • Guoqi Jin,
  • Tianjun Zhou,
  • Yin Zhao

摘要

The summer atmospheric water cycle over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is crucial to regional climate and water resources. However, simulations and projections of the TP’s atmospheric water cycle using convection-permitting models have not been well addressed. In this study, based on a set of decade-long convection-permitting (at a resolution of 3.3 km) and convection-parameterized (at a resolution of 13.2 km) regional simulations with Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Weather and Climate Model (ICON) over the TP, we demonstrate that the convection-permitting ICON simulation shows evident added value in capturing the summer atmospheric water cycle across the TP, with reduced wet biases in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and moisture convergence. The reduction in the simulated precipitation in ICON_3.3 km is primarily balanced by the reduction of total moisture convergence, which is associated with the weaker water vapor inflow across the southern boundary of the TP. Further sensitivity experiments suggest that the explicit convection in ICON_3.3 km, rather than the increased horizontal resolution, is the main factor for this improvement. The explicit convection weakens the Indian summer monsoon circulation and reduces the conversion of advected and evaporated moisture to precipitation over the TP. Future convection-permitting projections with the pseudo-global-warming experiment suggest a significant intensification of the TP’s summer atmospheric water cycle, followed by the enhanced water vapor inflow, particularly along the southwestern boundary of the TP. Despite the increased precipitation and evapotranspiration, the precipitation recycling ratio decreases, indicating a greater dependence on external moisture sources. These findings enhance our understanding of the TP’s water cycle and its future changes.