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<p>Early summer precipitation (ESP) plays a critical role in agricultural productivity, economic stability, and societal activities across East Asia, particularly in key farming regions such as northeast China. However, its long-term variability and driving mechanisms remain poorly understood due to the limited length of instrumental records, which hinders reliable forecasts and risk assessments related to droughts and floods. In this study, we presented a 254-year (1762–2015) ESP reconstruction based on tree-ring width data from 21 sites in northeast China, explaining 47.5% of precipitation variance during the calibration period (1959–2015). The reconstruction exhibited strong spatial coherence with gridded precipitation across northeast Asia and showed good agreement with other precipitation reconstructions from northeast China, the Russian Far East, and North Korea. Four wet periods (1777–1778, 1791–1795, 1910–1912, and 1993–1994) and five dry periods (1767–1769, 1785–1786, 1919–1924, 1965–1968, and 2001–2005) were identified, with extreme dry and wet years clustered in the eighteenth and twentieth centuries. Significant spectral cycles of 2, 3.2, 4.1–4.2, 10.4–11.8, and 15.9–17.5&#xa0;years in the ESP probably corresponded to East Pacific Sea surface temperature anomalies associated with large-scale climate modes, particularly El Niño (high-frequency variability) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (low-frequency variability). This study not only extends the regional precipitation record but also highlights the value of climate-sensitive tree-ring samples for reconstructing non-dominant climate drivers in East Asia.</p>

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East Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies shape early summer precipitation patterns in Northeast China since 1762

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月2日

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  • Liangjun Zhu,
  • Xu Zhang,
  • J. Julio Camarero,
  • Zhenju Chen,
  • Mingqi Li,
  • Xiaochun Wang,
  • Paolo Cherubini

摘要

Early summer precipitation (ESP) plays a critical role in agricultural productivity, economic stability, and societal activities across East Asia, particularly in key farming regions such as northeast China. However, its long-term variability and driving mechanisms remain poorly understood due to the limited length of instrumental records, which hinders reliable forecasts and risk assessments related to droughts and floods. In this study, we presented a 254-year (1762–2015) ESP reconstruction based on tree-ring width data from 21 sites in northeast China, explaining 47.5% of precipitation variance during the calibration period (1959–2015). The reconstruction exhibited strong spatial coherence with gridded precipitation across northeast Asia and showed good agreement with other precipitation reconstructions from northeast China, the Russian Far East, and North Korea. Four wet periods (1777–1778, 1791–1795, 1910–1912, and 1993–1994) and five dry periods (1767–1769, 1785–1786, 1919–1924, 1965–1968, and 2001–2005) were identified, with extreme dry and wet years clustered in the eighteenth and twentieth centuries. Significant spectral cycles of 2, 3.2, 4.1–4.2, 10.4–11.8, and 15.9–17.5 years in the ESP probably corresponded to East Pacific Sea surface temperature anomalies associated with large-scale climate modes, particularly El Niño (high-frequency variability) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (low-frequency variability). This study not only extends the regional precipitation record but also highlights the value of climate-sensitive tree-ring samples for reconstructing non-dominant climate drivers in East Asia.