<p>Over recent decades, the Antarctic polar vortex (AAPV) has exhibited pronounced interdecadal variability across multiple timescales, playing a critical role in modulating Southern Hemisphere climate through stratosphere-troposphere coupling. However, the mechanisms underlying interdecadal variability of AAPV remain poorly understood, limiting our ability to predict its long-term climate changes. In this study, we identify a quasi-periodic oscillation of the AAPV with a period of ~ 9–14 years, strongly linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central tropical Pacific, associated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (PQDO). Cross-spectral analysis reveals significant coherence between the AAPV and central Pacific SST within the ~ 9–14 years frequency band. Our analysis suggests a predominant influence from central Pacific SST to the AAPV on the interdecadal timescale, with negligible feedback from the stratosphere to the tropical ocean in our diagnostic framework. By combining reanalysis datasets and dynamical diagnostics, we show that this teleconnection is mediated by poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by central Pacific SST anomalies. For instance, these enhanced waves would enhance the Amundsen Sea Low, thereby modulating the propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere. Subsequent wave breaking and momentum deposition induce polar stratospheric warming, thereby weakening the AAPV. Among Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, the E3SM-1-1 model realistically reproduce the low-frequency coupling between PQDO and the AAPV, exhibiting spectral peaks near 9–14 years, while the SST regions that exert the strongest influence on the AAPV in other models differ slightly from observations. Furthermore, a PQDO-based statistical model demonstrates predictive skill for AAPV variability up to six years in advance, underscoring the potential utility of this tropical-polar teleconnection for contributing to decadal-scale climate prediction.</p>

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Interdecadal variability of the Antarctic Polar vortex linked to central Pacific sea surface temperature

  • Yingli Niu,
  • Fei Xie,
  • Yan Xia

摘要

Over recent decades, the Antarctic polar vortex (AAPV) has exhibited pronounced interdecadal variability across multiple timescales, playing a critical role in modulating Southern Hemisphere climate through stratosphere-troposphere coupling. However, the mechanisms underlying interdecadal variability of AAPV remain poorly understood, limiting our ability to predict its long-term climate changes. In this study, we identify a quasi-periodic oscillation of the AAPV with a period of ~ 9–14 years, strongly linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central tropical Pacific, associated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (PQDO). Cross-spectral analysis reveals significant coherence between the AAPV and central Pacific SST within the ~ 9–14 years frequency band. Our analysis suggests a predominant influence from central Pacific SST to the AAPV on the interdecadal timescale, with negligible feedback from the stratosphere to the tropical ocean in our diagnostic framework. By combining reanalysis datasets and dynamical diagnostics, we show that this teleconnection is mediated by poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by central Pacific SST anomalies. For instance, these enhanced waves would enhance the Amundsen Sea Low, thereby modulating the propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere. Subsequent wave breaking and momentum deposition induce polar stratospheric warming, thereby weakening the AAPV. Among Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, the E3SM-1-1 model realistically reproduce the low-frequency coupling between PQDO and the AAPV, exhibiting spectral peaks near 9–14 years, while the SST regions that exert the strongest influence on the AAPV in other models differ slightly from observations. Furthermore, a PQDO-based statistical model demonstrates predictive skill for AAPV variability up to six years in advance, underscoring the potential utility of this tropical-polar teleconnection for contributing to decadal-scale climate prediction.