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<p>Over the past century, East Asian land monsoon rainfall (EALMR) has exhibited significant decadal variations, primarily linking to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical and North Pacific (TNP). However, how will the decadal variability of EALMR change and the role of TNP SSTAs in a warming world remain uncertain. Projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) indicate that the leading mode of decadal EALMR will retain its near-uniform spatial pattern, but no significant change in the intensity of decadal EALMR compared to the historical period, which may attribute to the insignificant change in intensity of TNP SSTAs and its relationship with the decadal EALMR. It hints that TNP SSTAs may continue to serve as a key predictability source for decadal EALMR. Comparisons with different external forcings and pre-industrial control experiments indicate that the unchanged property and the role of TNP SSTAs are primarily influenced by the internal variability, which possibly results in the insignificant intensity changes of decadal EALMR under various future scenarios.</p>

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Insignificant future changes in decadal variability of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月2日

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  • Juan Li,
  • Haifeng Ju,
  • Yeyan Jiang,
  • Shanshan Zhong,
  • Zhiwei Zhu

摘要

Over the past century, East Asian land monsoon rainfall (EALMR) has exhibited significant decadal variations, primarily linking to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical and North Pacific (TNP). However, how will the decadal variability of EALMR change and the role of TNP SSTAs in a warming world remain uncertain. Projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) indicate that the leading mode of decadal EALMR will retain its near-uniform spatial pattern, but no significant change in the intensity of decadal EALMR compared to the historical period, which may attribute to the insignificant change in intensity of TNP SSTAs and its relationship with the decadal EALMR. It hints that TNP SSTAs may continue to serve as a key predictability source for decadal EALMR. Comparisons with different external forcings and pre-industrial control experiments indicate that the unchanged property and the role of TNP SSTAs are primarily influenced by the internal variability, which possibly results in the insignificant intensity changes of decadal EALMR under various future scenarios.