Scholarlink

<p>The response of tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits substantial changes in a warmer climate, as revealed by large-ensemble high-resolution simulations. Here, we identify significant uncertainties in projected TCGF anomalies during ENSO years among ensemble members. Based on empirical orthogonal function analysis, we demonstrate that the leading uncertainty mode shows a basin-wide uniform TCGF response during ENSO phases. Further analysis indicates that biases in the projected sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Central Pacific (TCP) are a principal driver of this uncertainty. Warmer TCP SST biases induce additional cyclonic circulation anomalies over the WNP similar to a Gill-type response aligned along 10°N, favoring increased TCGF over the WNP. Conversely, cooler TCP SST biases suppress TCGF in the region. These results imply the critical importance of improving SST projections in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, along with refining local precipitation simulations, to reduce TCGF projection uncertainty over the WNP.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Tropical sea surface temperature biases induce projection uncertainty in northwest pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency during ENSO phases

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月2日

查看全文
  • Liang Shi,
  • Jiuwei Zhao,
  • Ruifen Zhan

摘要

The response of tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits substantial changes in a warmer climate, as revealed by large-ensemble high-resolution simulations. Here, we identify significant uncertainties in projected TCGF anomalies during ENSO years among ensemble members. Based on empirical orthogonal function analysis, we demonstrate that the leading uncertainty mode shows a basin-wide uniform TCGF response during ENSO phases. Further analysis indicates that biases in the projected sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Central Pacific (TCP) are a principal driver of this uncertainty. Warmer TCP SST biases induce additional cyclonic circulation anomalies over the WNP similar to a Gill-type response aligned along 10°N, favoring increased TCGF over the WNP. Conversely, cooler TCP SST biases suppress TCGF in the region. These results imply the critical importance of improving SST projections in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, along with refining local precipitation simulations, to reduce TCGF projection uncertainty over the WNP.