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<p>Convection-permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) increasingly model local climate at scales smaller than 4&#xa0;km. CPRCMs provide improved simulations of precipitation by resolving convection explicitly instead of relying on parametrisation. Still, CPRCMs’ implications for drought conditions remain underexplored, especially in Europe and Fenno-Scandinavia where future changes in drought frequency and intensity are still unclear. In this study, we use data from a recent CPRCM run based on HARMONIE-Climate (HCLIM) over Fenno-Scandinavia at approximately 3&#xa0;km resolution to assess changes in drought probabilities in Fenno-Scandinavia using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, we developed a more nuanced multi-threshold method, analysing the previously overlooked different intensities of droughts. We found, according to the assessed simulations, fewer future months with moderate drought. However, the number of months with exceptional and unprecedented drought levels is projected to increase, especially during the growing season. Both the CPRCM and the regional climate models (RCM) demonstrate this signal. The CPRCM is projecting more droughts compared to the RCM, especially for the most intense drought intensities. According to the data in this study, large parts of Fenno-Scandinavia are projected to be affected by droughts of unprecedented intensities by the middle and especially by the end of the 21st century. Our findings show the potential of using CPRCMs for modelling drought, as the more accurate physical representation of precipitation manifests in an increased frequency of drought projections compared to RCM. Furthermore, we recommend the use of the multi-threshold method when analysing standardized drought indices to better capture the complexity of droughts in a changing climate.</p>

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Unprecedented extreme meteorological droughts simulated in Fenno-Scandinavia with high-resolution climate models

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月2日

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  • Ruben Häberli,
  • Ole B. Christensen,
  • Peter Thejll,
  • Eigil Kaas

摘要

Convection-permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) increasingly model local climate at scales smaller than 4 km. CPRCMs provide improved simulations of precipitation by resolving convection explicitly instead of relying on parametrisation. Still, CPRCMs’ implications for drought conditions remain underexplored, especially in Europe and Fenno-Scandinavia where future changes in drought frequency and intensity are still unclear. In this study, we use data from a recent CPRCM run based on HARMONIE-Climate (HCLIM) over Fenno-Scandinavia at approximately 3 km resolution to assess changes in drought probabilities in Fenno-Scandinavia using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, we developed a more nuanced multi-threshold method, analysing the previously overlooked different intensities of droughts. We found, according to the assessed simulations, fewer future months with moderate drought. However, the number of months with exceptional and unprecedented drought levels is projected to increase, especially during the growing season. Both the CPRCM and the regional climate models (RCM) demonstrate this signal. The CPRCM is projecting more droughts compared to the RCM, especially for the most intense drought intensities. According to the data in this study, large parts of Fenno-Scandinavia are projected to be affected by droughts of unprecedented intensities by the middle and especially by the end of the 21st century. Our findings show the potential of using CPRCMs for modelling drought, as the more accurate physical representation of precipitation manifests in an increased frequency of drought projections compared to RCM. Furthermore, we recommend the use of the multi-threshold method when analysing standardized drought indices to better capture the complexity of droughts in a changing climate.