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<p>As global warming progresses, the reduction of Arctic sea ice is intensifying and extending into the central Arctic. This significantly affects the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to climate change and poses a severe threat to the ecological environment and human society. The prevailing scientific consensus holds that thermodynamic processes dominate Arctic sea ice decline. However, based on 34 years (1989–2022) of daily sea ice concentration data and the Empirical Orthogonal Function method, this study reveals that the third dominant mode (Centrally Uniform Mode, CUM) and the fourth dominant mode (Wave Train–like Mode, WTM) of extremely low sea ice concentration events in the central Arctic are characterized by comparable contributions from thermodynamic and dynamic processes. Using the sea ice budget diagnostic method for quantification, thermodynamic (dynamic) contributions account for 49% (51%) in the CUM and 58% (42%) in the WTM. Mechanistically, both CUM and WTM arise from the combined effects of mid-latitude temperature advection and sea ice motion. Water vapor and cloud feedbacks also play important roles. The atmospheric circulation anomaly associated with the CUM is part of the circumglobal teleconnection. The WTM is mainly influenced by the displaced polar vortex, reflecting the regulatory effect of the competition between the mid-latitude high-pressure belt and the polar vortex on central Arctic sea ice variations. Elucidating the mechanisms by which the aforementioned thermodynamic and dynamic processes regulate central Arctic sea ice variations significantly advances our understanding of climate change.</p>

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Two modes of extreme central Arctic sea ice reduction: temperature advection and sea ice motion dominance

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月6日

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  • Zhenlin Li,
  • Ruichang Ding,
  • Fei Huang,
  • Jian Shi,
  • Shumeng Zhang

摘要

As global warming progresses, the reduction of Arctic sea ice is intensifying and extending into the central Arctic. This significantly affects the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to climate change and poses a severe threat to the ecological environment and human society. The prevailing scientific consensus holds that thermodynamic processes dominate Arctic sea ice decline. However, based on 34 years (1989–2022) of daily sea ice concentration data and the Empirical Orthogonal Function method, this study reveals that the third dominant mode (Centrally Uniform Mode, CUM) and the fourth dominant mode (Wave Train–like Mode, WTM) of extremely low sea ice concentration events in the central Arctic are characterized by comparable contributions from thermodynamic and dynamic processes. Using the sea ice budget diagnostic method for quantification, thermodynamic (dynamic) contributions account for 49% (51%) in the CUM and 58% (42%) in the WTM. Mechanistically, both CUM and WTM arise from the combined effects of mid-latitude temperature advection and sea ice motion. Water vapor and cloud feedbacks also play important roles. The atmospheric circulation anomaly associated with the CUM is part of the circumglobal teleconnection. The WTM is mainly influenced by the displaced polar vortex, reflecting the regulatory effect of the competition between the mid-latitude high-pressure belt and the polar vortex on central Arctic sea ice variations. Elucidating the mechanisms by which the aforementioned thermodynamic and dynamic processes regulate central Arctic sea ice variations significantly advances our understanding of climate change.