Scholarlink

<p>This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of NASA-NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset across Eurasia’s climatic and topographic gradients, analyzing 20 statistically downscaled models’ performance in simulating six extreme precipitation indices over four regions (South Asia [SAS], East Asia [EAS], Central Asia [CAS], Southeast Asia [SEA]) during 1985–2014, and projecting future changes under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, 2071–2100). The downscaled models, incorporating bias correction and 0.25° spatial disaggregation, outperformed native CMIP6 in spatial simulations, with Taylor Skill Scores (TSS) increasing by 0.03–0.41, most notably for total precipitation (PRCPTOT, + 0.31) and consecutive dry days (CDD, + 0.41). Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) captured observed trends in PRCPTOT, SDII, Rx5day, and R20 but underestimated magnitudes by 10–40%, especially in arid CAS (soil moisture-precipitation feedback unresolved) and humid SEA (complex convective processes). Regional superiority emerged in top models (CESM2, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR), driven by advanced parameterizations of monsoon dynamics (SAS/SEA) versus persistent CAS biases. Future projections under SSP5-8.5 reveal stark hydroclimatic contrasts: SAS faces a 29% surge in total precipitation with monsoon extremes accelerating (Rx1day + 1.2×  faster than Rx5day), while CAS confronts hydroclimatic whiplash—a 16% rise in extreme precipitation alongside prolonged droughts (CDD + 5.8%). EAS and SEA exhibit moderate wetting (PRCPTOT + 11–16%) but divergent drought risks, with SEA experiencing both extreme rain (+ 16.5%) and aridity (+ 27.4% CDD). These nonlinear, emission-dependent responses demand region-specific adaptation: flood-resilient infrastructure in monsoon regions (SAS/EAS/SEA) aligns with SDG11 (sustainable cities), while water storage systems in arid CAS (SDG6) are critical to mitigate compounding risks. Our findings advance the utility of downscaled models in complex terrains and directly inform climate-resilient policymaking across Eurasia.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Contrasting responses of Eurasian extreme precipitation to climate change: a multi-regional assessment using NEX-GDDP-CMIP6

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月2日

查看全文
  • Hui Cai,
  • Shen’ao Li,
  • Wenxuan Zhang,
  • Xian Zhu

摘要

This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of NASA-NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset across Eurasia’s climatic and topographic gradients, analyzing 20 statistically downscaled models’ performance in simulating six extreme precipitation indices over four regions (South Asia [SAS], East Asia [EAS], Central Asia [CAS], Southeast Asia [SEA]) during 1985–2014, and projecting future changes under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, 2071–2100). The downscaled models, incorporating bias correction and 0.25° spatial disaggregation, outperformed native CMIP6 in spatial simulations, with Taylor Skill Scores (TSS) increasing by 0.03–0.41, most notably for total precipitation (PRCPTOT, + 0.31) and consecutive dry days (CDD, + 0.41). Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) captured observed trends in PRCPTOT, SDII, Rx5day, and R20 but underestimated magnitudes by 10–40%, especially in arid CAS (soil moisture-precipitation feedback unresolved) and humid SEA (complex convective processes). Regional superiority emerged in top models (CESM2, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR), driven by advanced parameterizations of monsoon dynamics (SAS/SEA) versus persistent CAS biases. Future projections under SSP5-8.5 reveal stark hydroclimatic contrasts: SAS faces a 29% surge in total precipitation with monsoon extremes accelerating (Rx1day + 1.2×  faster than Rx5day), while CAS confronts hydroclimatic whiplash—a 16% rise in extreme precipitation alongside prolonged droughts (CDD + 5.8%). EAS and SEA exhibit moderate wetting (PRCPTOT + 11–16%) but divergent drought risks, with SEA experiencing both extreme rain (+ 16.5%) and aridity (+ 27.4% CDD). These nonlinear, emission-dependent responses demand region-specific adaptation: flood-resilient infrastructure in monsoon regions (SAS/EAS/SEA) aligns with SDG11 (sustainable cities), while water storage systems in arid CAS (SDG6) are critical to mitigate compounding risks. Our findings advance the utility of downscaled models in complex terrains and directly inform climate-resilient policymaking across Eurasia.