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<p>The nations of the South-west Pacific are particularly susceptible to extreme weather and climate events, particularly those that are linked to synoptic-scale systems, such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and tropical depressions (TDs). This study fills a critical data gap by reconstructing the first continuous, basin-wide record of both TCs and TDs for the South Pacific since the 1850s. The Okubo–Weiss–Zeta parameter (OWZP) method is employed in this study to reconstruct historical records of both TCs and TDs for the South Pacific basin. The state-of-the-art NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) product is employed. Observational recordings from the pre-satellite era are employed to conduct the comprehensive statistical evaluations of these reconstructions. Quantitative validation against the SPEArTC database confirms the significant capacity of the 20CR reanalysis to replicate observed TCs. With a hit rate and Critical Success Index (CSI) both around 60%, the 20CR exhibits a level of skill in realistically reproducing TC counts in the southwest Pacific basin. The results also indicate that the spatial distribution of genesis locations and the shapes of the tracks are similar to several important characteristics of the observational records in the 20CR-derived TCs and TDs. This provides us with the assurance that the long-term records of TCs and TDs derived from the 20CR can be a valuable instrument for analysing historical changes in their various characteristics, particularly in the context of anthropogenic climate change.</p>

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Detection and reconstruction of tropical cyclones and tropical depressions for the South Pacific during 1850–1978

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月22日

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  • Md Wahiduzzaman,
  • Alea Yeasmin

摘要

The nations of the South-west Pacific are particularly susceptible to extreme weather and climate events, particularly those that are linked to synoptic-scale systems, such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and tropical depressions (TDs). This study fills a critical data gap by reconstructing the first continuous, basin-wide record of both TCs and TDs for the South Pacific since the 1850s. The Okubo–Weiss–Zeta parameter (OWZP) method is employed in this study to reconstruct historical records of both TCs and TDs for the South Pacific basin. The state-of-the-art NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) product is employed. Observational recordings from the pre-satellite era are employed to conduct the comprehensive statistical evaluations of these reconstructions. Quantitative validation against the SPEArTC database confirms the significant capacity of the 20CR reanalysis to replicate observed TCs. With a hit rate and Critical Success Index (CSI) both around 60%, the 20CR exhibits a level of skill in realistically reproducing TC counts in the southwest Pacific basin. The results also indicate that the spatial distribution of genesis locations and the shapes of the tracks are similar to several important characteristics of the observational records in the 20CR-derived TCs and TDs. This provides us with the assurance that the long-term records of TCs and TDs derived from the 20CR can be a valuable instrument for analysing historical changes in their various characteristics, particularly in the context of anthropogenic climate change.