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<p>Under the influence of climate change, the main body of Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced a pronounced warming and wetting trend, substantially affecting the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme climate events. However, whether compound hot-dry events (CHDEs) have undergone long-term changes under this warming and wetting background remains unclear. Here, using the High-Resolution Near-Surface Meteorological Forcing Dataset for the Third Pole Region (TPMFD), we examine the spatio-temporal variability of CHDEs and their underlying mechanisms across the TP. Our results show that CHDEs occur more frequently in the southern TP (excluding the Himalayas). Associated with global warming, CHDEs on the TP exhibit increasing trends in frequency, duration, and intensity. Aggregated spatial analyses indicate that the annual total days of CHDEs have increased by 1.31 days per decade, frequency by 0.12 times per decade, mean intensity by 101.17 per decade, and peak intensity by 5.18% per decade. Both the climatology and trends of CHDEs display elevation-dependent characteristics: climatology increases with elevation below 5000&#xa0;m, whereas above 4800&#xa0;m, the upward trends weaken, showing a linear decline in trend magnitude with increasing elevation. The intensification of CHDEs is primarily driven by warming, while wetting trends in the central-western and northern TP partially offset this effect. The strong spatial co-occurrence of hot and dry extremes with CHDEs in the central-western TP suggests an underlying physical linkage. Climate change further strengthens the association between hot and dry extremes by modulating the hydrothermal relationship. In basins where CHDEs have increased most markedly, the frequency of warm-dry conditions has risen substantially. Overall, these findings advance our understanding of compound extremes in alpine regions and provide a foundation for mitigating the adverse impacts of CHDEs.</p>

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Intensification of compound hot–dry events on the Tibetan plateau under a warming background

  • 期刊论文

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月20日

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  • Rongyun Pan,
  • Tianjun Zhou,
  • Kexin Gui

摘要

Under the influence of climate change, the main body of Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced a pronounced warming and wetting trend, substantially affecting the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme climate events. However, whether compound hot-dry events (CHDEs) have undergone long-term changes under this warming and wetting background remains unclear. Here, using the High-Resolution Near-Surface Meteorological Forcing Dataset for the Third Pole Region (TPMFD), we examine the spatio-temporal variability of CHDEs and their underlying mechanisms across the TP. Our results show that CHDEs occur more frequently in the southern TP (excluding the Himalayas). Associated with global warming, CHDEs on the TP exhibit increasing trends in frequency, duration, and intensity. Aggregated spatial analyses indicate that the annual total days of CHDEs have increased by 1.31 days per decade, frequency by 0.12 times per decade, mean intensity by 101.17 per decade, and peak intensity by 5.18% per decade. Both the climatology and trends of CHDEs display elevation-dependent characteristics: climatology increases with elevation below 5000 m, whereas above 4800 m, the upward trends weaken, showing a linear decline in trend magnitude with increasing elevation. The intensification of CHDEs is primarily driven by warming, while wetting trends in the central-western and northern TP partially offset this effect. The strong spatial co-occurrence of hot and dry extremes with CHDEs in the central-western TP suggests an underlying physical linkage. Climate change further strengthens the association between hot and dry extremes by modulating the hydrothermal relationship. In basins where CHDEs have increased most markedly, the frequency of warm-dry conditions has risen substantially. Overall, these findings advance our understanding of compound extremes in alpine regions and provide a foundation for mitigating the adverse impacts of CHDEs.