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<p>The Arctic, which is highly sensitive to climate change, is experiencing unprecedented transformations. Cyclones, as extreme weather events, significantly impact sea ice through dynamic and thermodynamic forcings. This study quantifies the relative roles of dynamic, atmospheric thermodynamic, and oceanic thermodynamic forcings on sea ice changes from Arctic cold-season cyclones (1993–2020) throughout distinct phases of cyclone passage (4 days prior to the day of, 1–4 days after, and 5–7 days after cyclone passage) in the northern Barents Sea and the southwestern Kara Sea. It is found that sea ice concentration decreases significantly before cyclone passage and gradually increases thereafter. Across all phases, dynamic forcing dominates the sea ice response, while atmospheric thermodynamic forcing plays a secondary role. Oceanic thermodynamic forcing contributes minimally and is primarily active in regions with pronounced Atlantic Water influence. Notably, we identify a new oceanic thermodynamic mechanism: cyclones reduce the distance between mixed layer depth and warm-layer upper boundary (WL-MLD), enhancing upward ocean heat flux and then influencing sea ice. In the northern Barents Sea, dynamic forcing reduces sea ice effective thickness by ~ 0.57&#xa0;cm/day before cyclone passage and increases it by ~ 0.68&#xa0;cm/day after it passes, which, like all following values, is defined as the difference between the “cyclone’’ and “non-cyclone’’ scenarios. Before cyclone passage, atmospheric thermodynamic forcing suppresses thickness increase by ~ 0.49&#xa0;cm/day, while oceanic thermodynamic forcing mitigates thickness loss by ~ 0.17&#xa0;cm/day. In the southwestern Kara Sea, dynamic forcing leads to a reduction of ~ 0.79&#xa0;cm/day before cyclone passage, followed by an increase of ~ 0.42&#xa0;cm/day after passage.</p>

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Quantifying the relative roles of dynamic, atmospheric thermodynamic, and oceanic thermodynamic forcings on Arctic sea ice from cold-season cyclones

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月6日

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  • Xinyuan Lv,
  • Zhendong Liu,
  • Yangjun Wang,
  • Ren Zhang

摘要

The Arctic, which is highly sensitive to climate change, is experiencing unprecedented transformations. Cyclones, as extreme weather events, significantly impact sea ice through dynamic and thermodynamic forcings. This study quantifies the relative roles of dynamic, atmospheric thermodynamic, and oceanic thermodynamic forcings on sea ice changes from Arctic cold-season cyclones (1993–2020) throughout distinct phases of cyclone passage (4 days prior to the day of, 1–4 days after, and 5–7 days after cyclone passage) in the northern Barents Sea and the southwestern Kara Sea. It is found that sea ice concentration decreases significantly before cyclone passage and gradually increases thereafter. Across all phases, dynamic forcing dominates the sea ice response, while atmospheric thermodynamic forcing plays a secondary role. Oceanic thermodynamic forcing contributes minimally and is primarily active in regions with pronounced Atlantic Water influence. Notably, we identify a new oceanic thermodynamic mechanism: cyclones reduce the distance between mixed layer depth and warm-layer upper boundary (WL-MLD), enhancing upward ocean heat flux and then influencing sea ice. In the northern Barents Sea, dynamic forcing reduces sea ice effective thickness by ~ 0.57 cm/day before cyclone passage and increases it by ~ 0.68 cm/day after it passes, which, like all following values, is defined as the difference between the “cyclone’’ and “non-cyclone’’ scenarios. Before cyclone passage, atmospheric thermodynamic forcing suppresses thickness increase by ~ 0.49 cm/day, while oceanic thermodynamic forcing mitigates thickness loss by ~ 0.17 cm/day. In the southwestern Kara Sea, dynamic forcing leads to a reduction of ~ 0.79 cm/day before cyclone passage, followed by an increase of ~ 0.42 cm/day after passage.