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<p>Regional climate heterogeneity affects crop production. Clarifying the compound effects of long-term climate change and climate extremes on winter wheat yields and predicting future yields are key prerequisites for arid-zone agriculture to cope with climate change and ensure food security. We selected 12 climate indices to analyze the effects of long-term climate change and climate extremes on winter wheat yield from 1989 to 2023 using the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) algorithm and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework. Sixteen global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were selected to analyze the trend of winter wheat yield under four future shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) (126, 245, 370, and 585). The results indicate that all climatic factors contributed to an average county-level increase in winter wheat yield of 1.06% in Xinjiang from 1989 to 2023. Long-term climate, extreme precipitation, and extreme temperature variations had complex effects on yield, increasing or decreasing it. The direction and intensity of their impacts varied across regions. Due to regional environmental conditions and differences in climate factors, the influence of climate factors on yield exhibited spatial heterogeneity. In some regions, solar radiation (SR) and growing degree days (GDD) shifted from positive to negative effects, whereas the reduction in heavy precipitation(R95p) improved yield. The winter wheat yield in Xinjiang increased, stabilized, and declined under the future climate scenario. Under the SSP585 scenario, 22.5% of counties had negative growth rates after 2060. The key climatic factors for yield change were GDD and R10 in the historical period and precipitation (Pr) and relative humidity (RH) in the SSP scenario. The results provide a scientific basis for formulating adaptation strategies for winter wheat zoning in arid regions.</p>

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Compound effects of long-term and extreme climate on winter wheat yields in arid regions and future predictions: A case study of Xinjiang

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月8日

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  • Jiamin Fang,
  • Hongguang Liu,
  • Ping Gong,
  • Jinglan Jia,
  • Rui Cai,
  • Qiang Meng,
  • Yong Guo,
  • Le Dong

摘要

Regional climate heterogeneity affects crop production. Clarifying the compound effects of long-term climate change and climate extremes on winter wheat yields and predicting future yields are key prerequisites for arid-zone agriculture to cope with climate change and ensure food security. We selected 12 climate indices to analyze the effects of long-term climate change and climate extremes on winter wheat yield from 1989 to 2023 using the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) algorithm and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework. Sixteen global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were selected to analyze the trend of winter wheat yield under four future shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) (126, 245, 370, and 585). The results indicate that all climatic factors contributed to an average county-level increase in winter wheat yield of 1.06% in Xinjiang from 1989 to 2023. Long-term climate, extreme precipitation, and extreme temperature variations had complex effects on yield, increasing or decreasing it. The direction and intensity of their impacts varied across regions. Due to regional environmental conditions and differences in climate factors, the influence of climate factors on yield exhibited spatial heterogeneity. In some regions, solar radiation (SR) and growing degree days (GDD) shifted from positive to negative effects, whereas the reduction in heavy precipitation(R95p) improved yield. The winter wheat yield in Xinjiang increased, stabilized, and declined under the future climate scenario. Under the SSP585 scenario, 22.5% of counties had negative growth rates after 2060. The key climatic factors for yield change were GDD and R10 in the historical period and precipitation (Pr) and relative humidity (RH) in the SSP scenario. The results provide a scientific basis for formulating adaptation strategies for winter wheat zoning in arid regions.