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<p>Understanding the dynamics of extremes during storms is critical for improving their forecasts. In this work, we focus on both the atmospheric and ocean extremes, by considering the atmospheric pressure and the storm surges. Their properties are analysed using a dynamical systems approach. To this end, a novel metric is introduced: the normalised phase space velocity <i>v</i>. This allows us to track the acceleration of the dynamics near extreme events. We discuss its advantages compared to other indicators and compare their performances. We study the correlations between different storm intensity metrics and local dimensions <i>d</i> and <i>v</i>, as well as the evolution of these metrics near extreme events, uncovering the physical processes at play behind these observations. These findings provide new insights into the temporal structure of storm surges.</p>

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Dynamical properties of atmospheric and sea level extremes in the North-East Atlantic

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月19日

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  • Théophile Caby,
  • Lucia Pineau-Guillou,
  • Florian Sévellec,
  • Jean Marc Delouis

摘要

Understanding the dynamics of extremes during storms is critical for improving their forecasts. In this work, we focus on both the atmospheric and ocean extremes, by considering the atmospheric pressure and the storm surges. Their properties are analysed using a dynamical systems approach. To this end, a novel metric is introduced: the normalised phase space velocity v. This allows us to track the acceleration of the dynamics near extreme events. We discuss its advantages compared to other indicators and compare their performances. We study the correlations between different storm intensity metrics and local dimensions d and v, as well as the evolution of these metrics near extreme events, uncovering the physical processes at play behind these observations. These findings provide new insights into the temporal structure of storm surges.