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<p>Central Asia (CA) is highly sensitive to hydroclimatic variability, with spring precipitation playing a vital role in supporting regional agriculture and water resources. This study uses the 35-member CESM Large Ensemble and 28 CMIP6 models to investigate projected changes in the anomalous spring precipitation over CA modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under global warming. The results indicate that precipitation increases significantly during ENSO decay springs under high-emission scenarios, particularly over southwestern CA. Moisture budget analysis reveals that this enhancement is primarily driven by the intensified horizontal moisture advection due to ENSO-related circulation anomalies acting on background humidity, particularly through strengthened meridional circulation. Mechanistically, ENSO induces a positive precipitation anomaly over the North Atlantic in spring, which is projected to intensify under warming. This enhanced precipitation acts as a wave source, exciting Rossby wave trains that propagate eastward along the subtropical westerly jet and trigger atmospheric circulation responses across the Eurasian midlatitudes, characterized by an anticyclonic anomaly over CA and a cyclonic anomaly over North Africa. The circulation changes favor enhanced southwesterly moisture transport into CA, thereby amplifying the ENSO-related spring precipitation under global warming. This study emphasizes the importance of enhanced ENSO-induced horizontal moisture transport in shaping future CA precipitation changes, which advances understanding of tropical–midlatitude teleconnection influences on hydroclimate under warming and contributes to future climate adaptation and water resource management.</p>

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Enhanced spring precipitation in central Asia induced by ENSO under global warming

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月19日

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  • Lin Sun,
  • Yanting Zhang,
  • Xiao-Tong Zheng

摘要

Central Asia (CA) is highly sensitive to hydroclimatic variability, with spring precipitation playing a vital role in supporting regional agriculture and water resources. This study uses the 35-member CESM Large Ensemble and 28 CMIP6 models to investigate projected changes in the anomalous spring precipitation over CA modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under global warming. The results indicate that precipitation increases significantly during ENSO decay springs under high-emission scenarios, particularly over southwestern CA. Moisture budget analysis reveals that this enhancement is primarily driven by the intensified horizontal moisture advection due to ENSO-related circulation anomalies acting on background humidity, particularly through strengthened meridional circulation. Mechanistically, ENSO induces a positive precipitation anomaly over the North Atlantic in spring, which is projected to intensify under warming. This enhanced precipitation acts as a wave source, exciting Rossby wave trains that propagate eastward along the subtropical westerly jet and trigger atmospheric circulation responses across the Eurasian midlatitudes, characterized by an anticyclonic anomaly over CA and a cyclonic anomaly over North Africa. The circulation changes favor enhanced southwesterly moisture transport into CA, thereby amplifying the ENSO-related spring precipitation under global warming. This study emphasizes the importance of enhanced ENSO-induced horizontal moisture transport in shaping future CA precipitation changes, which advances understanding of tropical–midlatitude teleconnection influences on hydroclimate under warming and contributes to future climate adaptation and water resource management.