<p>Characterized by cross-equatorial southerlies veering eastward in the northwestern Indian Ocean (IO), Somali Jet (SMJ) forms part of the Indian summer monsoon that severely affects climate in IO-rim countries. Variability of SMJ is modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but how their relationship responds to greenhouse warming is unclear. Here using available models from CMIP6, we find that the ENSO–SMJ connection increases under a high emission scenario in the warming 21st century, which manifests as a strengthened atmospheric teleconnection from ENSO to SMJ. Under greenhouse warming, ocean-atmosphere coupling intensifies in the tropical Pacific, leading to a larger zonal wind response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The enhanced wind response transmits to the IO via changes in the Walker circulation and associated convective anomalies, such that El Niño (La Niña)-induced easterly (westerly) anomalies are correspondingly enlarged in the IO that dampen (strengthen) the SMJ. The processes are further amplified by an increase in ENSO SST variability. We further show that the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) may help deliver the ENSO’s impact in a warming climate if the IOD–ENSO coupling strengthens. Our results suggest that extreme wet and dry events in the Indian subcontinent are likely to occur more frequently as a consequence of the increased ENSO–SMJ connection in a warming climate.</p>

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Enhanced El Niño–Southern Oscillation impact on Somali jet under greenhouse warming

  • Haodong Wang,
  • Tao Geng,
  • Wenju Cai,
  • Shuo Wu,
  • Xiaopei Lin

摘要

Characterized by cross-equatorial southerlies veering eastward in the northwestern Indian Ocean (IO), Somali Jet (SMJ) forms part of the Indian summer monsoon that severely affects climate in IO-rim countries. Variability of SMJ is modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but how their relationship responds to greenhouse warming is unclear. Here using available models from CMIP6, we find that the ENSO–SMJ connection increases under a high emission scenario in the warming 21st century, which manifests as a strengthened atmospheric teleconnection from ENSO to SMJ. Under greenhouse warming, ocean-atmosphere coupling intensifies in the tropical Pacific, leading to a larger zonal wind response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The enhanced wind response transmits to the IO via changes in the Walker circulation and associated convective anomalies, such that El Niño (La Niña)-induced easterly (westerly) anomalies are correspondingly enlarged in the IO that dampen (strengthen) the SMJ. The processes are further amplified by an increase in ENSO SST variability. We further show that the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) may help deliver the ENSO’s impact in a warming climate if the IOD–ENSO coupling strengthens. Our results suggest that extreme wet and dry events in the Indian subcontinent are likely to occur more frequently as a consequence of the increased ENSO–SMJ connection in a warming climate.