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<p>Ascertaining the future changes in climate extremes is crucial to the modern world. Consequently, this study seeks to assess the future changes in the Spatio-temporal variations of climate extremes across the Volta Basin using selected models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The analyses focused on two future time periods: the near future (2031–2060) and far future (2061–2090), compared with the historical period (1985–2014). Five CMIP6 models under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios are implemented. The findings reveal an increase in the number of dry days (CDD) and a decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) in both the northern and southern regions of the Volta Basin, with shifts of approximately 10 days in both the near and far future under both future scenarios. Additionally, there are projected changes of up to 10 days in the R10mm and R20mm indices, with increases in the southern and decreases in the northern parts of the Volta Basin. A significant rise of 10% in the R95p and R99p indices is expected in the southern and central areas. These changes are likely to have significant implications for agriculture and water resources. With increased dry and wet periods, farmers may need to explore controlled environments for crop production. Moreover, optimizing the use of limited land for farming could help mitigate the impacts of land use and land cover changes across the Volta Basin.</p>

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Future changes in extreme precipitation events over the Volta basin under medium and high emission scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月9日

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  • Jacob Agyekum,
  • Thompson Annor,
  • Emmanuel Obuobie

摘要

Ascertaining the future changes in climate extremes is crucial to the modern world. Consequently, this study seeks to assess the future changes in the Spatio-temporal variations of climate extremes across the Volta Basin using selected models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The analyses focused on two future time periods: the near future (2031–2060) and far future (2061–2090), compared with the historical period (1985–2014). Five CMIP6 models under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios are implemented. The findings reveal an increase in the number of dry days (CDD) and a decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) in both the northern and southern regions of the Volta Basin, with shifts of approximately 10 days in both the near and far future under both future scenarios. Additionally, there are projected changes of up to 10 days in the R10mm and R20mm indices, with increases in the southern and decreases in the northern parts of the Volta Basin. A significant rise of 10% in the R95p and R99p indices is expected in the southern and central areas. These changes are likely to have significant implications for agriculture and water resources. With increased dry and wet periods, farmers may need to explore controlled environments for crop production. Moreover, optimizing the use of limited land for farming could help mitigate the impacts of land use and land cover changes across the Volta Basin.