Scholarlink

<p>Earlier research has suggested that intensified convection over the western Pacific (WP) can increase surface temperatures in the Middle East (ME) by inducing high-pressure anomalies in spring. However, how climate models can reproduce this WP-ME climate teleconnection remains unknown. Here, we evaluate the performance of fifty CMIP6 models in simulating the relationship between the WP and the ME climate variabilities. While the multi-model ensemble mean can capture the spatial patterns of strong WP convection and higher ME temperatures during spring, substantial inter-model uncertainties persist. By comparing good-performing models (GPMs) and bad-performing models (BPMs), we demonstrate that the ability of CMIP6 models to accurately simulate the WP-ME climate teleconnection is primarily linked to a correct representation of anomalous high pressures over the ME, driven by the WP-convection-forced Rossby waves over South and East Asia. GPMs reproduce the observed Rossby wave response to intensified WP convection, which generates significant barotropic high-pressure anomalies over the ME, causing surface warming. In contrast, BPMs simulate eastward-shifted Rossby waves, resulting in negative pressure anomalies and cooling ME. Under a high-emission future scenario, GPMs further project a weakened WP-ME teleconnection in spring, likely due to an eastward shift of WP-convection-forced Rossby waves over East Asia and a low-pressure anomaly over the ME region. These findings provide new insights into the WP and ME climate variability and its response to global warming.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Connection of spring Middle East climate variability to western Pacific convection in climate models: bias evaluation and future projection

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月10日

查看全文
  • Ming Xia,
  • Song Yang,
  • Shuheng Lin,
  • Hanjie Fan,
  • Wei Wei,
  • Lianlian Xu,
  • Kaiqiang Deng

摘要

Earlier research has suggested that intensified convection over the western Pacific (WP) can increase surface temperatures in the Middle East (ME) by inducing high-pressure anomalies in spring. However, how climate models can reproduce this WP-ME climate teleconnection remains unknown. Here, we evaluate the performance of fifty CMIP6 models in simulating the relationship between the WP and the ME climate variabilities. While the multi-model ensemble mean can capture the spatial patterns of strong WP convection and higher ME temperatures during spring, substantial inter-model uncertainties persist. By comparing good-performing models (GPMs) and bad-performing models (BPMs), we demonstrate that the ability of CMIP6 models to accurately simulate the WP-ME climate teleconnection is primarily linked to a correct representation of anomalous high pressures over the ME, driven by the WP-convection-forced Rossby waves over South and East Asia. GPMs reproduce the observed Rossby wave response to intensified WP convection, which generates significant barotropic high-pressure anomalies over the ME, causing surface warming. In contrast, BPMs simulate eastward-shifted Rossby waves, resulting in negative pressure anomalies and cooling ME. Under a high-emission future scenario, GPMs further project a weakened WP-ME teleconnection in spring, likely due to an eastward shift of WP-convection-forced Rossby waves over East Asia and a low-pressure anomaly over the ME region. These findings provide new insights into the WP and ME climate variability and its response to global warming.