<p>Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) during the Indian Summer Monsoon have significant societal impacts, yet their spatiotemporal organization and underlying drivers remain poorly understood. This study applies a complex network framework, using nonlinear synchronization metrics, to analyze the structure, propagation, and drivers of EPEs across India. The results reveal distinct spatial communities experiencing synchronized or sequential extremes, influenced by synoptic systems such as low-pressure systems, mid-tropospheric cyclones, monsoon intraseasonal oscillations, and western disturbances, as well as by orographic features. Directed network analysis highlights key source–sink dynamics, with the east coast and Bay of Bengal acting as major moisture source regions, and central and western India serving as primary sink zones where widespread EPEs occur. High betweenness centrality indicates important moisture pathways linking these regions. Composite synoptic diagnostics show region-specific circulation regimes, including break-phase anticyclonic anomalies and LPS–trough interactions. Moisture budget analysis identifies vertically integrated moisture convergence as the dominant driver of widespread extremes, while evaporation contributes minimally. These findings underscore the critical role of atmospheric connectivity, synoptic forcing, and dynamic moisture transport in shaping monsoon precipitation extremes, offering valuable insights for improved forecasting, risk assessment, and climate adaptation strategies.</p>

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Complex network reveals propagation and moisture dynamics of Indian monsoon precipitation extremes

  • Akash Singh Raghuvanshi,
  • Ankit Agarwal

摘要

Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) during the Indian Summer Monsoon have significant societal impacts, yet their spatiotemporal organization and underlying drivers remain poorly understood. This study applies a complex network framework, using nonlinear synchronization metrics, to analyze the structure, propagation, and drivers of EPEs across India. The results reveal distinct spatial communities experiencing synchronized or sequential extremes, influenced by synoptic systems such as low-pressure systems, mid-tropospheric cyclones, monsoon intraseasonal oscillations, and western disturbances, as well as by orographic features. Directed network analysis highlights key source–sink dynamics, with the east coast and Bay of Bengal acting as major moisture source regions, and central and western India serving as primary sink zones where widespread EPEs occur. High betweenness centrality indicates important moisture pathways linking these regions. Composite synoptic diagnostics show region-specific circulation regimes, including break-phase anticyclonic anomalies and LPS–trough interactions. Moisture budget analysis identifies vertically integrated moisture convergence as the dominant driver of widespread extremes, while evaporation contributes minimally. These findings underscore the critical role of atmospheric connectivity, synoptic forcing, and dynamic moisture transport in shaping monsoon precipitation extremes, offering valuable insights for improved forecasting, risk assessment, and climate adaptation strategies.