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<p>Regions in the mid- and high-latitudes, located at the edges of the monsoon system, are highly sensitive to global climate change, with drought responses being particularly pronounced. Despite the significant impacts of drought on ecosystems, water security, and socio-economic development, the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving forces of drought in these regions have not been adequately explored. In this study, we used Mann–Kendall trend test and Geographical Detector Model analysis to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of drought in the Amur River Basin, a climatically sensitive transboundary basin spanning northeastern China, the Russian Far East, and eastern Mongolia. The results showed that across both the observed period and future climate scenarios, drought frequency showed consistent decreasing trends of − 0.31, − 0.26, − 0.19, and − 0.35/decade (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.01), especially in the Russian Far East. In contrast, drought intensity, duration, and intervals increased, particularly in the northeastern and Russian parts of the basin. These findings indicated a shift toward less frequent but more prolonged and intense drought events. Moreover, drought duration was significantly and positively correlated with drought intervals, while frequency showed a significant negative correlation with intervals. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation were more strongly correlated with drought characteristics than the East Asian Summer Monsoon. The interaction effects of large-scale circulation factors were more significant for changes in drought interval and frequency. Abnormal 850&#xa0;hPa geopotential height over Mongolia and anomalous sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Japan contributed to the occurrence of abnormal drought patterns across the basin. This study provides a scientific basis for formulating adaptive water resource management strategies, strengthening early drought warning systems, and enhancing disaster risk mitigation efforts in the basin under current and future climate change.</p>

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Temporal and spatial dynamics of drought in the Amur River Basin under climate change: observed trends, future projections, and driving mechanisms

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月19日

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  • Yanhui Zhang,
  • Lei Wang,
  • Ming Li,
  • Wen J. Wang,
  • Jinyuan Ren,
  • Shanfeng Xing,
  • Yu Cong

摘要

Regions in the mid- and high-latitudes, located at the edges of the monsoon system, are highly sensitive to global climate change, with drought responses being particularly pronounced. Despite the significant impacts of drought on ecosystems, water security, and socio-economic development, the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving forces of drought in these regions have not been adequately explored. In this study, we used Mann–Kendall trend test and Geographical Detector Model analysis to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of drought in the Amur River Basin, a climatically sensitive transboundary basin spanning northeastern China, the Russian Far East, and eastern Mongolia. The results showed that across both the observed period and future climate scenarios, drought frequency showed consistent decreasing trends of − 0.31, − 0.26, − 0.19, and − 0.35/decade (p < 0.01), especially in the Russian Far East. In contrast, drought intensity, duration, and intervals increased, particularly in the northeastern and Russian parts of the basin. These findings indicated a shift toward less frequent but more prolonged and intense drought events. Moreover, drought duration was significantly and positively correlated with drought intervals, while frequency showed a significant negative correlation with intervals. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation were more strongly correlated with drought characteristics than the East Asian Summer Monsoon. The interaction effects of large-scale circulation factors were more significant for changes in drought interval and frequency. Abnormal 850 hPa geopotential height over Mongolia and anomalous sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Japan contributed to the occurrence of abnormal drought patterns across the basin. This study provides a scientific basis for formulating adaptive water resource management strategies, strengthening early drought warning systems, and enhancing disaster risk mitigation efforts in the basin under current and future climate change.