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<p>This study examined the spatial variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) and tropical depressions (TDs) in the South Pacific Island countries and evaluates the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). A methodology utilising absolute vorticity as an Okubo-Weiss-Zeta parameter (OWZP), along with particular thermodynamic and dynamic conditions, has been implemented to identify TCs and TDs by an OWZP detection scheme. Over a span of 45&#xa0;years (1979–2023), ERA-5 data have been employed to analyse both TCs and TDs. Results indicate an average detection of 9 TCs and 7 TDs per year in ERA-5. 57.3% of TCs occurred during El Niño, whilst 42.7% occurred during La Niña; however, the trend was reversed for TDs. During the active phase of the MJO, 62% of TCs were observed, while 38% occurred during the non-active phase. The properties of TDs were identical to those of TCs during both the active and inactive phases of the MJO. The characteristics of TCs and TDs were also provided for each island nation, aiding in risk assessment and comprehension of regional climate change.</p>

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Spatial variability of tropical cyclones and depressions across the South Pacific Island countries: influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月5日

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  • Md Wahiduzzaman,
  • Alea Yeasmin

摘要

This study examined the spatial variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) and tropical depressions (TDs) in the South Pacific Island countries and evaluates the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). A methodology utilising absolute vorticity as an Okubo-Weiss-Zeta parameter (OWZP), along with particular thermodynamic and dynamic conditions, has been implemented to identify TCs and TDs by an OWZP detection scheme. Over a span of 45 years (1979–2023), ERA-5 data have been employed to analyse both TCs and TDs. Results indicate an average detection of 9 TCs and 7 TDs per year in ERA-5. 57.3% of TCs occurred during El Niño, whilst 42.7% occurred during La Niña; however, the trend was reversed for TDs. During the active phase of the MJO, 62% of TCs were observed, while 38% occurred during the non-active phase. The properties of TDs were identical to those of TCs during both the active and inactive phases of the MJO. The characteristics of TCs and TDs were also provided for each island nation, aiding in risk assessment and comprehension of regional climate change.