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<p>The South China Sea is a vital water vapor channel that connects the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Changes in precipitation in the South China Sea profoundly impact regional and even global ecosystems. In the current context of global warming, extreme weather events are frequent. Studying the evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation in the South China Sea is of great practical significance and scientific value in guiding water resource management and responding to climate change. In this study, the coefficient of variation, extreme precipitation index, and Sen + MK trend analysis were used to analyze precipitation changes in the South China Sea region from 2001 to 2100—on the basis of GPM and CMIP6 data, and correlations between meteorological driving factors and annual precipitation were explored. Research results revealed that the annual precipitation in the South China Sea from 2001 to 2023 ranged from 400 to 6600&#xa0;mm with an increasing trend from northwest to southeast. This phenomenon is jointly influenced by factors such as the monsoon system, the subtropical high-pressure system, geographical location, and land‒sea thermal differences. The annual precipitation from 2024 to 2100 gradually increased, and the annual precipitation under the SSP2-4.5 scenario was generally greater than that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, which indicated a complex nonlinear relationship between carbon emissions and precipitation. The temporal and spatial distributions of extreme precipitation events indicated that the value of the extreme precipitation index under the high-emission scenario was greater than that under the low-emission scenario and extreme precipitation events under the SSP5-8.5 scenario were more frequent and intense. The spatial difference in the precipitation mechanism in the South China Sea region is reflected in the precipitation in the northeast is driven mainly by the monsoon system, whereas in the southwest, it gradually transitions to control by local convection. This research provides an important basis for understanding precipitation changes in the South China Sea and offers theoretical support for predicting regional climate change and formulating response measures.</p>

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Temporal and spatial variations in precipitation and the distribution of extreme precipitation events in the South China Sea based on GPM and CMIP6 data

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月25日

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  • Jinfeng Yan,
  • Xinbo Niu,
  • Congcong Miao,
  • Fenzhen Su

摘要

The South China Sea is a vital water vapor channel that connects the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Changes in precipitation in the South China Sea profoundly impact regional and even global ecosystems. In the current context of global warming, extreme weather events are frequent. Studying the evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation in the South China Sea is of great practical significance and scientific value in guiding water resource management and responding to climate change. In this study, the coefficient of variation, extreme precipitation index, and Sen + MK trend analysis were used to analyze precipitation changes in the South China Sea region from 2001 to 2100—on the basis of GPM and CMIP6 data, and correlations between meteorological driving factors and annual precipitation were explored. Research results revealed that the annual precipitation in the South China Sea from 2001 to 2023 ranged from 400 to 6600 mm with an increasing trend from northwest to southeast. This phenomenon is jointly influenced by factors such as the monsoon system, the subtropical high-pressure system, geographical location, and land‒sea thermal differences. The annual precipitation from 2024 to 2100 gradually increased, and the annual precipitation under the SSP2-4.5 scenario was generally greater than that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, which indicated a complex nonlinear relationship between carbon emissions and precipitation. The temporal and spatial distributions of extreme precipitation events indicated that the value of the extreme precipitation index under the high-emission scenario was greater than that under the low-emission scenario and extreme precipitation events under the SSP5-8.5 scenario were more frequent and intense. The spatial difference in the precipitation mechanism in the South China Sea region is reflected in the precipitation in the northeast is driven mainly by the monsoon system, whereas in the southwest, it gradually transitions to control by local convection. This research provides an important basis for understanding precipitation changes in the South China Sea and offers theoretical support for predicting regional climate change and formulating response measures.