<p>Extreme humid heat is one of the most catastrophic natural disasters, causing serious socio-economic impacts. Weather extremes in the tropics are known to be significantly modulated by tropical intraseasonal activity. In this study, we explore the relationship between the variability of humid heat stress events and tropical sub-seasonal oscillations over India. The oscillations considered are the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves, namely the Equatorial Rossby wave (ER), Equatorial Kelvin wave (EK), and Mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) and Tropical Depression (TD) together called the MT wave. The study shows that the wet phases of these oscillations exert a greater impact on the heat stress than the dry phase due to increased humidity in the wet phase, specifically, the wet phases of ER and BSISO. In case of MT, both wet and dry phases lead to an enhanced frequency of extreme heat stress events, with an increase of as much as 100% in certain regions compared to climatology. On the other hand, the Kelvin wave is mostly shown to reduce the heat stress probability over the region. However, the trends over the past 44&#xa0;years in the heat stress events reveal an escalating influence of the dry phases of these waves on the frequency and intensities compared to the wet phase due to increasing temperature as well as humidity in the recent years. Further, the shorter-time periodicity waves, like the MT and Kelvin waves, show greater trends in humid heat extremes compared to longer-time period oscillations.</p>

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Variability of humid heat stress over India and its association with tropical sub-seasonal oscillations

  • Tukaram Zore,
  • Kiranmayi Landu

摘要

Extreme humid heat is one of the most catastrophic natural disasters, causing serious socio-economic impacts. Weather extremes in the tropics are known to be significantly modulated by tropical intraseasonal activity. In this study, we explore the relationship between the variability of humid heat stress events and tropical sub-seasonal oscillations over India. The oscillations considered are the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves, namely the Equatorial Rossby wave (ER), Equatorial Kelvin wave (EK), and Mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) and Tropical Depression (TD) together called the MT wave. The study shows that the wet phases of these oscillations exert a greater impact on the heat stress than the dry phase due to increased humidity in the wet phase, specifically, the wet phases of ER and BSISO. In case of MT, both wet and dry phases lead to an enhanced frequency of extreme heat stress events, with an increase of as much as 100% in certain regions compared to climatology. On the other hand, the Kelvin wave is mostly shown to reduce the heat stress probability over the region. However, the trends over the past 44 years in the heat stress events reveal an escalating influence of the dry phases of these waves on the frequency and intensities compared to the wet phase due to increasing temperature as well as humidity in the recent years. Further, the shorter-time periodicity waves, like the MT and Kelvin waves, show greater trends in humid heat extremes compared to longer-time period oscillations.