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<p>A wide variety of precipitation extremes frequently occur, posing a significant threat to natural disasters and the social economy. However, few studies have focused regional clustered extreme precipitation. In this research, we present the high correlation area approach for evaluating clustered extreme precipitation (CEP) in autumn in North China (NC). It is found that the autumn CEP in NC increases by 31.52%. CEP is common in the synoptic type of short-wave and subtropical highs, supporting convergence rising and high moisture transport, which causes atmospheric instability. Coupling with this synoptic type, Arctic ice loss in two key region, including East Siberian Sea-Kara Sea and Greenland Sea, favor CEP in early autumn. The former leading to a cyclonic anomaly over the North China region and an anticyclonic anomaly near the East China Sea, forming an Arctic-East Asia tripole response. This configuration favored the development of upward motion and moisture transport over North China.. The latter enhances the westerly wave that forms the short wave over in NC and the west extension of the western Pacific subtropical High, which drives moisture from the subtropical Pacific contributing to moisture and reducing atmospheric instability for convective activity. The results serve as a reference for improving the prediction and management of CEP events in NC.</p>

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Intensified clustered extreme precipitation in the North China in the early autumn and the association with Arctic ice loss

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月25日

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  • Yuyang Wu,
  • Jie Zhang,
  • Jianhua Qu,
  • Zishu Miao,
  • Xinyu Fang,
  • Jiang Liu

摘要

A wide variety of precipitation extremes frequently occur, posing a significant threat to natural disasters and the social economy. However, few studies have focused regional clustered extreme precipitation. In this research, we present the high correlation area approach for evaluating clustered extreme precipitation (CEP) in autumn in North China (NC). It is found that the autumn CEP in NC increases by 31.52%. CEP is common in the synoptic type of short-wave and subtropical highs, supporting convergence rising and high moisture transport, which causes atmospheric instability. Coupling with this synoptic type, Arctic ice loss in two key region, including East Siberian Sea-Kara Sea and Greenland Sea, favor CEP in early autumn. The former leading to a cyclonic anomaly over the North China region and an anticyclonic anomaly near the East China Sea, forming an Arctic-East Asia tripole response. This configuration favored the development of upward motion and moisture transport over North China.. The latter enhances the westerly wave that forms the short wave over in NC and the west extension of the western Pacific subtropical High, which drives moisture from the subtropical Pacific contributing to moisture and reducing atmospheric instability for convective activity. The results serve as a reference for improving the prediction and management of CEP events in NC.