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<p>This study examines the projected changes in precipitation patterns and droughts over the west coast of India (WCI) during the period 2024–2050. Bias-corrected, downscaled data from the coupled model inter-comparison project phase-6 (CMIP6) under multiple shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), as discussed in the companion paper (Part-I; Haridas et al. in Clim Dyn, 2025), are employed for the analysis. The self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) is used to assess drought severity over the WCI, including the southern Indian State of Kerala. The projections indicate a 10&#xa0;mm increase in post-monsoon and 300&#xa0;mm in monsoon seasonal rainfall over northern coastal and far-leeward regions under all SSPs. While central Kerala is projected to experience a significant increase of 225&#xa0;mm in mean monsoon rainfall under SSP3-7.0, along with up to 250&#xa0;mm of post-monsoon rainfall at the 90% confidence level, pre-monsoon rainfall in northern Kerala may rise only marginally (5–25&#xa0;mm) and south-central Kerala could witness a 5–10&#xa0;mm decrease. Although the mean rainfall is projected to rise, an increase in standard deviation suggests a heightened intensity of extreme events. The projected scPDSI revealed that severe and extreme droughts will increase, with the eastern hilly regions facing prolonged (&gt; 90 cumulative months) extreme droughts, under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Given the growing evidence of convective intensification and increased vulnerability over the WCI, a detailed projection of future precipitation patterns is essential for better preparedness and adaptation.</p>

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How is the future climate linked to mean temperature changes over the west coast of India? Part-II: precipitation changes and drought severity from CMIP6 projections

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月17日

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  • Sreekumar Haridas,
  • M. G. Manoj

摘要

This study examines the projected changes in precipitation patterns and droughts over the west coast of India (WCI) during the period 2024–2050. Bias-corrected, downscaled data from the coupled model inter-comparison project phase-6 (CMIP6) under multiple shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), as discussed in the companion paper (Part-I; Haridas et al. in Clim Dyn, 2025), are employed for the analysis. The self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) is used to assess drought severity over the WCI, including the southern Indian State of Kerala. The projections indicate a 10 mm increase in post-monsoon and 300 mm in monsoon seasonal rainfall over northern coastal and far-leeward regions under all SSPs. While central Kerala is projected to experience a significant increase of 225 mm in mean monsoon rainfall under SSP3-7.0, along with up to 250 mm of post-monsoon rainfall at the 90% confidence level, pre-monsoon rainfall in northern Kerala may rise only marginally (5–25 mm) and south-central Kerala could witness a 5–10 mm decrease. Although the mean rainfall is projected to rise, an increase in standard deviation suggests a heightened intensity of extreme events. The projected scPDSI revealed that severe and extreme droughts will increase, with the eastern hilly regions facing prolonged (> 90 cumulative months) extreme droughts, under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Given the growing evidence of convective intensification and increased vulnerability over the WCI, a detailed projection of future precipitation patterns is essential for better preparedness and adaptation.