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<p>Based on the best track data of tropical cyclones, statistical analysis was conducted on the rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone (RITC) ratio in the Western North Pacific region during autumn (September to November) from 1980 to 2020. The results indicated a significant change of this ratio before and after 1998, between periods of 1980–1998 (P1) and 1999–2020 (P2). Despite a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) after 1998, which was attributed to the decline of favorable atmospheric factors, the average number of RITC remained relatively stable. Besides, there was a notable increasing trend of the RITC ratio from P1 to P2, which is the RITC numbers divided by the total TCG numbers, due to a higher upward trend of the RITC number than TCG number in P2. Diagnostic analysis suggests that ocean was warmer and the ocean heat content (OHC) is higher in P2. Combined with the sustained increase in the average zonal translation speed of RITCs, they collectively reduce the cold-water upwelling cooling effect caused by tropical cyclones. This effect supports rapid intensification, and its increase has contributed to a sustained rise in the RITC ratio in P2. Further analysis indicates that mechanisms governing rapid intensification (RI) differ from those influencing TCG, with oceanic factors playing a particularly critical role in RI.</p>

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Decadal variations of rapid intensification tropical cyclone ratios in the Northwest Pacific during autumn

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月10日

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  • Weihao Wang,
  • Melinda Peng,
  • Xuyang Ge,
  • Mingcheng Chen

摘要

Based on the best track data of tropical cyclones, statistical analysis was conducted on the rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone (RITC) ratio in the Western North Pacific region during autumn (September to November) from 1980 to 2020. The results indicated a significant change of this ratio before and after 1998, between periods of 1980–1998 (P1) and 1999–2020 (P2). Despite a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) after 1998, which was attributed to the decline of favorable atmospheric factors, the average number of RITC remained relatively stable. Besides, there was a notable increasing trend of the RITC ratio from P1 to P2, which is the RITC numbers divided by the total TCG numbers, due to a higher upward trend of the RITC number than TCG number in P2. Diagnostic analysis suggests that ocean was warmer and the ocean heat content (OHC) is higher in P2. Combined with the sustained increase in the average zonal translation speed of RITCs, they collectively reduce the cold-water upwelling cooling effect caused by tropical cyclones. This effect supports rapid intensification, and its increase has contributed to a sustained rise in the RITC ratio in P2. Further analysis indicates that mechanisms governing rapid intensification (RI) differ from those influencing TCG, with oceanic factors playing a particularly critical role in RI.