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<p>Climate change has led to an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in recent years, which had a significant impact on local economic and social activities. To elucidate the impact of Chagan Nur Lake on an extreme precipitation process in the marginal region of the East Asian monsoon during summer and to contribute to the knowledge concerning extreme weather variability in mid-latitude semi-arid regions, this study focused on the extreme precipitation event that transpired between 24 and 27 July 2021 within the Chagan Nur Lake basin using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The experiment involved modifying the subsurface characteristics of Chagan Nur Lake to simulate scenarios with and without the lake. The results indicated that the large-scale circulation triggered intense convective processes in the Chagan Nur Lake area, while the lake itself affected the local climate and regional precipitation patterns. Overall, Chagan Nur Lake exerted a negative influence on the precipitation process, leading to a reduction of 20–30 mm in the total precipitation. In the six hours preceding the precipitation, Chagan Nur Lake caused an average decrease of 0.2–0.4&#xa0;°C in both the 2 m temperature (T2) and dew point temperature (TD), as well as a decrease of 0–10 m in the planetary&#xa0;boundary layer height (PBLH). The “cold” effect of Chagan Nur Lake inhibited atmospheric convective processes, thereby reducing the development of vertical motion. Subsequent to the terrestrialization of the lake, stronger thermal and dynamical conditions led to an increase in precipitation in the region. This study highlights the pivotal role of lakes in the occurrence of extreme precipitation in watersheds. It will be of paramount importance to consider the impact of the lake climate when forecasting precipitation in the semi-arid lake regions.</p>

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Simulating the influence of the lake on an extreme precipitation process in the mid-latitude East Asian monsoon fringe region: a case of Chagan Nur Lake

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月27日

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  • Yue Jing,
  • Long Pan,
  • Ningning Zhang,
  • Yun Shen,
  • Yingqiang Shi,
  • Dandi Liang,
  • Qian Li

摘要

Climate change has led to an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in recent years, which had a significant impact on local economic and social activities. To elucidate the impact of Chagan Nur Lake on an extreme precipitation process in the marginal region of the East Asian monsoon during summer and to contribute to the knowledge concerning extreme weather variability in mid-latitude semi-arid regions, this study focused on the extreme precipitation event that transpired between 24 and 27 July 2021 within the Chagan Nur Lake basin using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The experiment involved modifying the subsurface characteristics of Chagan Nur Lake to simulate scenarios with and without the lake. The results indicated that the large-scale circulation triggered intense convective processes in the Chagan Nur Lake area, while the lake itself affected the local climate and regional precipitation patterns. Overall, Chagan Nur Lake exerted a negative influence on the precipitation process, leading to a reduction of 20–30 mm in the total precipitation. In the six hours preceding the precipitation, Chagan Nur Lake caused an average decrease of 0.2–0.4 °C in both the 2 m temperature (T2) and dew point temperature (TD), as well as a decrease of 0–10 m in the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH). The “cold” effect of Chagan Nur Lake inhibited atmospheric convective processes, thereby reducing the development of vertical motion. Subsequent to the terrestrialization of the lake, stronger thermal and dynamical conditions led to an increase in precipitation in the region. This study highlights the pivotal role of lakes in the occurrence of extreme precipitation in watersheds. It will be of paramount importance to consider the impact of the lake climate when forecasting precipitation in the semi-arid lake regions.