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<p>Xiao and Ren (2023) showed that an increased decadal abrupt change (DAC) occurred in the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) around 2013. Among the previous DACs in the North Pacific around 1976, 1987 and 1997, the SST DACs around 1976 showed a horseshoe pattern, similar to those around 2013, and were associated with the global atmospheric DACs and accelerated the global warming pace. Therefore, this study describes the global spatial and temporal characteristics of atmospheric and SST DACs around 2013 and then compares the 2013 event to the atmospheric circulation and global warming pace of the DACs around 1976. The DACs of geopotential height in the troposphere and lower stratosphere mainly occurred over the tropics in 2013–15 and were most similar to those around 1976. The atmospheric DACs around 2013 had higher tropical geopotential height and were accompanied by an intensified Arctic amplification (AA), a stronger North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH) and a positive winter Arctic Oscillation (AO). The atmospheric DACs around 1976 in contrast, were associated with a weak AA, a stronger NAWH, and a negative phase of the winter AO. The DAC of the Victoria mode (VM) in 2012, instead of that of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), may be related to the termination of the so called global warming slowdown (1998–2013) and the start of accelerated global warming from 2014 to the present. The results presented potentially shine a light on understanding of the interdecadal transition in the pace of global warming.</p>

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Spatial–temporal characteristics of the atmospheric decadal abrupt changes around 2013 and their differences from those in the late 1970s

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月13日

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  • Dong Xiao

摘要

Xiao and Ren (2023) showed that an increased decadal abrupt change (DAC) occurred in the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) around 2013. Among the previous DACs in the North Pacific around 1976, 1987 and 1997, the SST DACs around 1976 showed a horseshoe pattern, similar to those around 2013, and were associated with the global atmospheric DACs and accelerated the global warming pace. Therefore, this study describes the global spatial and temporal characteristics of atmospheric and SST DACs around 2013 and then compares the 2013 event to the atmospheric circulation and global warming pace of the DACs around 1976. The DACs of geopotential height in the troposphere and lower stratosphere mainly occurred over the tropics in 2013–15 and were most similar to those around 1976. The atmospheric DACs around 2013 had higher tropical geopotential height and were accompanied by an intensified Arctic amplification (AA), a stronger North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH) and a positive winter Arctic Oscillation (AO). The atmospheric DACs around 1976 in contrast, were associated with a weak AA, a stronger NAWH, and a negative phase of the winter AO. The DAC of the Victoria mode (VM) in 2012, instead of that of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), may be related to the termination of the so called global warming slowdown (1998–2013) and the start of accelerated global warming from 2014 to the present. The results presented potentially shine a light on understanding of the interdecadal transition in the pace of global warming.