Tele-connected rainfall extremes over West and East Asia in April 2024 tied to Indian Ocean heating
摘要
Record-breaking rainfall occurred coherently over subtropical West Asia (WA) and East Asia (EA) in April 2024, both are associated with strong barotropic cyclones on their western sides. Based on linear regression analyses and numerical simulations by a linear baroclinic model (LBM), here we show evidences that these two rainfall extremes are tele-connected and are tied to the record-breaking latent heat release over tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The record-breaking latent heat release over TIO triggers a stationary Rossby wave train propagating northward. This wave train leads to a barotropic anticyclone over Northern Indian Ocean and a barotropic cyclone over WA, which largely explains the anomalous circulation responsible for extreme WA rainfall. Furthermore, the intense latent heat release associated with the extreme rainfall over WA triggers another stationary Rossby wave train along the Asian subtropical jet (ASJ). This wave train anchors a downstream barotropic cyclone anomaly on the eastern periphery of Tibetan Plateau with southerly flow from South China Sea to Eastern China, in favor of excessive rainfall over the EA region. Notably, observed record-breaking Asian rainfall extremes are concentrated in April 2024, possibly because the strong heating anomaly over TIO is absent in March while the substantially northward shifted ASJ in May cannot anchor a cyclone anomaly over WA in response to heating over TIO. This work highlights the importance of both basic state and tropical heating anomaly in shaping subtropical Asian climate extremes during the decaying phase of El Niño.