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<p>It is well established that the anomalous sea surface temperatures caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can impact polar stratospheric ozone concentrations in 2–3&#xa0;months. In recent years, the climatic impact of stratospheric ozone has received widespread attention. Some studies even suggest that Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) can affect the intensity of ENSO. So, is there a potential bidirectional feedback loop between ENSO and ASO? Based on observational and reanalysis data, this study confirms the possible existence of this two-way feedback. Furthermore, we have found that this feedback may be influenced by climate change. Compared the feedback between ENSO and ASO during two periods: 1984–2000 (P1) and 1984–2022 (P2), we found that the two-way feedback between ENSO and ASO has weakened during P2 compared to P1. This weakening may be attributed to changes in the Arctic Oscillation anomalies associated with ASO during P2, which led to a significant reduction in the relationship between ASO and North Pacific&#xa0;sea surface temperatures. In the future, if the relationship between ASO and the Arctic Oscillation strengthens again, this feedback loop could become more pronounced. In addition, we evaluated the capability of several CMIP6 models with high model top to simulate the feedback loop between ENSO and ASO. The findings reveal that, apart from the IPSL-CM6A-LR, most models fail to accurately reproduce this feedback. This may be one of the reasons for the significant discrepancies between the simulated and observed interannual variations in ENSO and ASO in the current CMIP6 models.</p>

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A possible two-way feedback between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Arctic stratospheric ozone

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月9日

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  • Hongwei Liu,
  • Fei Xie,
  • Yan Xia,
  • Jianping Li

摘要

It is well established that the anomalous sea surface temperatures caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can impact polar stratospheric ozone concentrations in 2–3 months. In recent years, the climatic impact of stratospheric ozone has received widespread attention. Some studies even suggest that Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) can affect the intensity of ENSO. So, is there a potential bidirectional feedback loop between ENSO and ASO? Based on observational and reanalysis data, this study confirms the possible existence of this two-way feedback. Furthermore, we have found that this feedback may be influenced by climate change. Compared the feedback between ENSO and ASO during two periods: 1984–2000 (P1) and 1984–2022 (P2), we found that the two-way feedback between ENSO and ASO has weakened during P2 compared to P1. This weakening may be attributed to changes in the Arctic Oscillation anomalies associated with ASO during P2, which led to a significant reduction in the relationship between ASO and North Pacific sea surface temperatures. In the future, if the relationship between ASO and the Arctic Oscillation strengthens again, this feedback loop could become more pronounced. In addition, we evaluated the capability of several CMIP6 models with high model top to simulate the feedback loop between ENSO and ASO. The findings reveal that, apart from the IPSL-CM6A-LR, most models fail to accurately reproduce this feedback. This may be one of the reasons for the significant discrepancies between the simulated and observed interannual variations in ENSO and ASO in the current CMIP6 models.