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<p>Natural ecosystems are increasingly threatened by environmental change, with the dynamics of habitat-forming species shaping ecosystem resilience. Reef-building corals face an uncertain future, yet demographic processes driving their population dynamics remain poorly understood across taxa. We applied a causal inference framework to two years of demographic data from nearly 500 coral colonies of multiple taxa and sizes, combined with in situ measurements of temperature, light, current velocity, and fine-scale benthic dynamics at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia. Both oceanographic conditions and biological interactions influenced coral survival and growth, with effects varying across taxa, highlighting strong local environmental filtering. Summer low tides, turf algae, and elevated sea temperatures were associated with reductions of 78%, 77%, and 75% in coral survival, respectively, while high turf abundance and algal overgrowth were associated with reductions in growth of 16–14%. Effects were taxon-specific; <i>Acropora</i> was most affected by turf, <i>Pocillopora</i> by currents and temperature, and small submassive corals by tides. Our study provides insights into how survival and growth are shaped by local environmental conditions and biotic interactions. These findings emphasise context-dependent functional responses of coral reefs to environmental pressures and offer insights for restoration and management strategies under accelerating climate change.</p>

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Biophysical drivers of coral survival and growth: taxon-specific responses under varying local conditions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月29日

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  • Carolina Castro-Sanguino,
  • Camille M. Grimaldi,
  • Natalie Rosser,
  • Nicole Ryan,
  • Declan Stick,
  • Luke Thomas,
  • James P. Gilmour

摘要

Natural ecosystems are increasingly threatened by environmental change, with the dynamics of habitat-forming species shaping ecosystem resilience. Reef-building corals face an uncertain future, yet demographic processes driving their population dynamics remain poorly understood across taxa. We applied a causal inference framework to two years of demographic data from nearly 500 coral colonies of multiple taxa and sizes, combined with in situ measurements of temperature, light, current velocity, and fine-scale benthic dynamics at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia. Both oceanographic conditions and biological interactions influenced coral survival and growth, with effects varying across taxa, highlighting strong local environmental filtering. Summer low tides, turf algae, and elevated sea temperatures were associated with reductions of 78%, 77%, and 75% in coral survival, respectively, while high turf abundance and algal overgrowth were associated with reductions in growth of 16–14%. Effects were taxon-specific; Acropora was most affected by turf, Pocillopora by currents and temperature, and small submassive corals by tides. Our study provides insights into how survival and growth are shaped by local environmental conditions and biotic interactions. These findings emphasise context-dependent functional responses of coral reefs to environmental pressures and offer insights for restoration and management strategies under accelerating climate change.