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<p>Like most isolated coral communities, Rapa Nui (Easter Island) corals are poorly studied, resulting in a scarcity of historical ecological and environmental data. To address this knowledge gap, we applied sclerochronology techniques to measure <i>Porites lobata</i> growth rates and their relationship with environmental drivers, characterizing growth dynamics, predicting climate change responses, and providing insights for Rapa Nui’s coastal development and other high-latitude isolated coral communities. X-ray imaging was used to identify density bands in four <i>P. lobata</i> fragments to determine annual growth rates as linear extension. Environmental variables (location; year; mean, minimum and maximum sea-surface temperature; degree heating weeks; and depth) were used as predictors in a boosted regression tree (BRT) to identify key factors influencing coral growth rates, followed by generalized additive models to project future scenarios. Results show a decline in growth over the last 25&#xa0;years, with sampling site and year explaining most of the variation in coral growth rates. BRT analysis revealed that higher sea-surface temperatures were consistently associated with reduced growth. Projections suggest a range of possible trajectories, from zero accretion to some colonies possibly retaining positive growth rates under moderate warming. Rapa Nui <i>P. lobata</i> exhibits an upper-threshold temperature for growth lower than other <i>Porites</i> populations in the Pacific, suggesting that high-latitude coral communities may be increasingly vulnerable as environmental conditions shift toward those of low-latitude tropical reefs. Further physiological and sclerochronological studies in high-latitude coral communities are encouraged, as they can provide crucial insights into local adaptations and responses to climate change.</p>

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Growth rate of Porites lobata on Rapa Nui: perspectives on the sustainability of corals in southeastern Polynesia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月28日

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  • Vicente Basualto-Luna,
  • Javier Sellanes,
  • Práxedes Muñoz,
  • María de los Ángeles Gallardo

摘要

Like most isolated coral communities, Rapa Nui (Easter Island) corals are poorly studied, resulting in a scarcity of historical ecological and environmental data. To address this knowledge gap, we applied sclerochronology techniques to measure Porites lobata growth rates and their relationship with environmental drivers, characterizing growth dynamics, predicting climate change responses, and providing insights for Rapa Nui’s coastal development and other high-latitude isolated coral communities. X-ray imaging was used to identify density bands in four P. lobata fragments to determine annual growth rates as linear extension. Environmental variables (location; year; mean, minimum and maximum sea-surface temperature; degree heating weeks; and depth) were used as predictors in a boosted regression tree (BRT) to identify key factors influencing coral growth rates, followed by generalized additive models to project future scenarios. Results show a decline in growth over the last 25 years, with sampling site and year explaining most of the variation in coral growth rates. BRT analysis revealed that higher sea-surface temperatures were consistently associated with reduced growth. Projections suggest a range of possible trajectories, from zero accretion to some colonies possibly retaining positive growth rates under moderate warming. Rapa Nui P. lobata exhibits an upper-threshold temperature for growth lower than other Porites populations in the Pacific, suggesting that high-latitude coral communities may be increasingly vulnerable as environmental conditions shift toward those of low-latitude tropical reefs. Further physiological and sclerochronological studies in high-latitude coral communities are encouraged, as they can provide crucial insights into local adaptations and responses to climate change.