<p>In this paper, a multi-patch HIV/AIDS epidemic model with heterosexual transmission is formulated to investigate the impact of travel among patches. It is a system of <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="285_2025_2226_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="26" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(6n^2\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mn>6</mn> <msup> <mi>n</mi> <mn>2</mn> </msup> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> ordinary differential equations describes HIV/AIDS spread in an environment divided into <i>n</i> patches. We derive the basic reproduction number <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="285_2025_2226_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="20" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_{0}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Lower and upper bounds on <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="285_2025_2226_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="20" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_{0}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> are given. We prove that if <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="285_2025_2226_Article_IEq4.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="51" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_{0}&lt;1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>&lt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, and if <InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="285_2025_2226_Article_IEq5.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="51" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_{0}&gt;1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>&gt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, there is at least an endemic equilibrium. We apply the model to three patches in which the disease spreads in a patch and dies out in the other two patches when there is no travel between them. We considered three types of connection between three patches: full connection(FC), i.e., <InlineEquation ID="IEq6"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="285_2025_2226_Article_IEq6.gif" Format="GIF" Height="14" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="114" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(1\Leftrightarrow 2\Leftrightarrow 3\Leftrightarrow 1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo stretchy="false">⇔</mo> <mn>2</mn> <mo stretchy="false">⇔</mo> <mn>3</mn> <mo stretchy="false">⇔</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, circular connection(CC), i.e., <InlineEquation ID="IEq7"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="285_2025_2226_Article_IEq7.gif" Format="GIF" Height="14" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="114" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(1\leftrightarrow 2\leftrightarrow 3\leftrightarrow 1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo stretchy="false">↔</mo> <mn>2</mn> <mo stretchy="false">↔</mo> <mn>3</mn> <mo stretchy="false">↔</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> and bidirectional connection(BC), i.e., <InlineEquation ID="IEq8"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="285_2025_2226_Article_IEq8.gif" Format="GIF" Height="14" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="79" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(1\Leftrightarrow 2\Leftrightarrow 3\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo stretchy="false">⇔</mo> <mn>2</mn> <mo stretchy="false">⇔</mo> <mn>3</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. We set different travel and return rates to study the impact of travel on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Numerical simulations confirm the theoretical results and indicate that travel may increase or decrease the spread of HIV/AIDS, i.e. HIV/AIDS may become endemic or die out in three patches when travel occurs, and three types of connection may have different impacts on disease transmission.</p>

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Analysis of an HIV/AIDS Model with sexual transmission and travel in a patchy environment

  • Juping Zhang,
  • Xueyan Ma,
  • Zhen Jin

摘要

In this paper, a multi-patch HIV/AIDS epidemic model with heterosexual transmission is formulated to investigate the impact of travel among patches. It is a system of \(6n^2\) 6 n 2 ordinary differential equations describes HIV/AIDS spread in an environment divided into n patches. We derive the basic reproduction number \(R_{0}\) R 0 . Lower and upper bounds on \(R_{0}\) R 0 are given. We prove that if \(R_{0}<1\) R 0 < 1 , the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, and if \(R_{0}>1\) R 0 > 1 , there is at least an endemic equilibrium. We apply the model to three patches in which the disease spreads in a patch and dies out in the other two patches when there is no travel between them. We considered three types of connection between three patches: full connection(FC), i.e., \(1\Leftrightarrow 2\Leftrightarrow 3\Leftrightarrow 1\) 1 2 3 1 , circular connection(CC), i.e., \(1\leftrightarrow 2\leftrightarrow 3\leftrightarrow 1\) 1 2 3 1 and bidirectional connection(BC), i.e., \(1\Leftrightarrow 2\Leftrightarrow 3\) 1 2 3 . We set different travel and return rates to study the impact of travel on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Numerical simulations confirm the theoretical results and indicate that travel may increase or decrease the spread of HIV/AIDS, i.e. HIV/AIDS may become endemic or die out in three patches when travel occurs, and three types of connection may have different impacts on disease transmission.