<p>In this paper, we propose a novel fractional-order SIRS (frSIRS) model incorporating infection forces under intervention strategies, developed through the framework of generalized continuous-time random walks. The model is first transformed into a system of Volterra integral equations to identify the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) state and the endemic equilibrium (EE) state. Additionally, we introduce a new <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="285_2025_2201_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="44" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(FV^{-1}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>F</mi> <msup> <mi>V</mi> <mrow> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </msup> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> method for calculating the basic reproduction number <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="285_2025_2201_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="22" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Through several examples, we demonstrate the broad applicability of this <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="285_2025_2201_Article_IEq3.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="44" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(FV^{-1}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>F</mi> <msup> <mi>V</mi> <mrow> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </msup> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> method in determining <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="285_2025_2201_Article_IEq4.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="22" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> for fractional-order epidemic models. Next, we establish that <InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="285_2025_2201_Article_IEq5.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="22" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> serves as a critical threshold governing the model’s dynamics: if <InlineEquation ID="IEq6"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="285_2025_2201_Article_IEq6.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="53" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0&lt;1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>&lt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, the unique DFE is globally asymptotically stable; while if <InlineEquation ID="IEq7"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="285_2025_2201_Article_IEq7.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="53" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0&gt;1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>&gt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, the unique EE is globally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, we apply our findings to two fractional-order SIRS (frSIRS) models incorporating infection forces under various intervention strategies, thereby substantiating our results. From an epidemiological perspective, our analysis reveals several key insights for controlling disease spread: (i) when the death rate is high, it is essential to increase the memory index; (ii) when the recovery rate is high, decreasing the memory index is advisable; and (iii) enhancing psychological or inhibitory effects–factors independent of the death rate, recovery rate, or memory index–can also play a critical role in mitigating disease transmission. These findings offer valuable insights into how the memory index influences disease outbreaks and the overall severity of epidemics.</p>

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Global dynamics of a fractional order SIRS epidemic model by the way of generalized continuous time random walk

  • Zhaohua Wu,
  • Yongli Cai,
  • Zhiming Wang,
  • Daihai He,
  • Weiming Wang

摘要

In this paper, we propose a novel fractional-order SIRS (frSIRS) model incorporating infection forces under intervention strategies, developed through the framework of generalized continuous-time random walks. The model is first transformed into a system of Volterra integral equations to identify the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) state and the endemic equilibrium (EE) state. Additionally, we introduce a new \(FV^{-1}\) F V - 1 method for calculating the basic reproduction number \(\mathcal {R}_0\) R 0 . Through several examples, we demonstrate the broad applicability of this \(FV^{-1}\) F V - 1 method in determining \(\mathcal {R}_0\) R 0 for fractional-order epidemic models. Next, we establish that \(\mathcal {R}_0\) R 0 serves as a critical threshold governing the model’s dynamics: if \(\mathcal {R}_0<1\) R 0 < 1 , the unique DFE is globally asymptotically stable; while if \(\mathcal {R}_0>1\) R 0 > 1 , the unique EE is globally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, we apply our findings to two fractional-order SIRS (frSIRS) models incorporating infection forces under various intervention strategies, thereby substantiating our results. From an epidemiological perspective, our analysis reveals several key insights for controlling disease spread: (i) when the death rate is high, it is essential to increase the memory index; (ii) when the recovery rate is high, decreasing the memory index is advisable; and (iii) enhancing psychological or inhibitory effects–factors independent of the death rate, recovery rate, or memory index–can also play a critical role in mitigating disease transmission. These findings offer valuable insights into how the memory index influences disease outbreaks and the overall severity of epidemics.