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<p>Climate change poses a critical challenge to agricultural sustainability due to alterations in water demand and crop yields. This study evaluates the projected agroclimatic, hydrological, productive, and economic impacts on maize, sugar beet, and wheat crops in the Itata River basin for the period 2035–2065, using simulations with the AquaCrop model under the RCP8.5 climate scenario. In addition, the effect of an adaptation strategy based on earlier sowing dates was analyzed. The results revealed marked spatial heterogeneity in net irrigation requirements (NIR), with higher demands for sugar beet (735–917&#xa0;mm), followed by maize (566–733&#xa0;mm) and wheat (503–636&#xa0;mm). Compared to the historical period (1980–2010), projected reductions in precipitation and the duration of the growing cycle limited the accumulation of both potential and actual evapotranspiration. Yields increased for sugar beet (16.2%) and wheat (19.5%), while maize showed a slight decrease (0.77%). Irrigation water productivity (IWP) increased for sugar beet (18.5%) and wheat (26.6%), and decreased for maize (4.8%), reflecting different physiological sensitivities to elevated CO<sub>2</sub> levels. In the economic analysis, projected net profit increased for wheat and sugar beet under the optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic price scenarios, whereas maize profitability was constrained by its lower productive response and inflationary effects. Finally, earlier sowing extended the crop cycle, increasing yields and reducing NIR for wheat and maize, confirming that the use of longer-cycle varieties constitutes an effective adaptation measure.</p>

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Modeling the impacts of climate change on the productivity and water demand of annual crops in south-central Chile

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月5日

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  • Luciano Quezada,
  • Margarita Garcia-Vila,
  • Eduardo Holzapfel,
  • Elias Fereres,
  • Mathias Kuschel-Otárola,
  • Christian Correa

摘要

Climate change poses a critical challenge to agricultural sustainability due to alterations in water demand and crop yields. This study evaluates the projected agroclimatic, hydrological, productive, and economic impacts on maize, sugar beet, and wheat crops in the Itata River basin for the period 2035–2065, using simulations with the AquaCrop model under the RCP8.5 climate scenario. In addition, the effect of an adaptation strategy based on earlier sowing dates was analyzed. The results revealed marked spatial heterogeneity in net irrigation requirements (NIR), with higher demands for sugar beet (735–917 mm), followed by maize (566–733 mm) and wheat (503–636 mm). Compared to the historical period (1980–2010), projected reductions in precipitation and the duration of the growing cycle limited the accumulation of both potential and actual evapotranspiration. Yields increased for sugar beet (16.2%) and wheat (19.5%), while maize showed a slight decrease (0.77%). Irrigation water productivity (IWP) increased for sugar beet (18.5%) and wheat (26.6%), and decreased for maize (4.8%), reflecting different physiological sensitivities to elevated CO2 levels. In the economic analysis, projected net profit increased for wheat and sugar beet under the optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic price scenarios, whereas maize profitability was constrained by its lower productive response and inflationary effects. Finally, earlier sowing extended the crop cycle, increasing yields and reducing NIR for wheat and maize, confirming that the use of longer-cycle varieties constitutes an effective adaptation measure.