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<p>Drought is one of the most severe natural hazards threatening agricultural development in China and is a major meteorological factor contributing to maize yield reduction. In this study, the AquaCrop model was combined with outputs from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, from CMIP6. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to quantify the impacts of historical (1997–2017) and future (2030–2100) drought on maize crop water productivity (CWP) in Northeast China, the Huang-Huai-Hai Region, and Northwest China, and to investigate their spatiotemporal patterns and correlations. The results show that the annual SPEI (SPEI12) exhibits a significant decreasing trend over time, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Under this scenario, the aridification rate in Northwest China reaches a maximum Sen’s slope of − 0.08 yr⁻¹, with 87.32% of the area showing a significant decrease (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05). Northwest China is projected to experience the most severe drought during 2080–2100, with drought duration extending to 192 months. Future maize CWP is projected to decline relative to the historical baseline of 1.82&#xa0;kg m⁻³, decreasing to approximately 1.66–1.81&#xa0;kg m⁻³ across different future periods. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, CWP growth stagnates during 2080–2100, with a slope of − 0.0006&#xa0;kg m⁻³ yr⁻¹, whereas under SSP5-8.5, a forced recovery is projected due to the CO₂ fertilization effect. The Pearson correlation coefficient between SPEI and CWP gradually decreases over time in most regions. This decline is particularly evident in Northwest China, where the relationship shifts from a strong historical correlation (<i>r</i> = 0.734) to a weak positive correlation (<i>r</i> = 0.093) during 2080–2100. This study provides forward-looking evidence for drought early-warning systems and region-specific strategies for sustainable agricultural water management in China.</p>

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Assessing drought and its impact on crop water productivity in northern China maize-producing regions under climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月1日

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  • Zemin Yang,
  • Yongshan Liang,
  • Jiang Bian,
  • Shikun Sun,
  • Dongmei Zhao,
  • Ting Bai,
  • Siya Wang,
  • Tanrui Qian,
  • Chong Li

摘要

Drought is one of the most severe natural hazards threatening agricultural development in China and is a major meteorological factor contributing to maize yield reduction. In this study, the AquaCrop model was combined with outputs from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, from CMIP6. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to quantify the impacts of historical (1997–2017) and future (2030–2100) drought on maize crop water productivity (CWP) in Northeast China, the Huang-Huai-Hai Region, and Northwest China, and to investigate their spatiotemporal patterns and correlations. The results show that the annual SPEI (SPEI12) exhibits a significant decreasing trend over time, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Under this scenario, the aridification rate in Northwest China reaches a maximum Sen’s slope of − 0.08 yr⁻¹, with 87.32% of the area showing a significant decrease (p < 0.05). Northwest China is projected to experience the most severe drought during 2080–2100, with drought duration extending to 192 months. Future maize CWP is projected to decline relative to the historical baseline of 1.82 kg m⁻³, decreasing to approximately 1.66–1.81 kg m⁻³ across different future periods. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, CWP growth stagnates during 2080–2100, with a slope of − 0.0006 kg m⁻³ yr⁻¹, whereas under SSP5-8.5, a forced recovery is projected due to the CO₂ fertilization effect. The Pearson correlation coefficient between SPEI and CWP gradually decreases over time in most regions. This decline is particularly evident in Northwest China, where the relationship shifts from a strong historical correlation (r = 0.734) to a weak positive correlation (r = 0.093) during 2080–2100. This study provides forward-looking evidence for drought early-warning systems and region-specific strategies for sustainable agricultural water management in China.