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<p>Prolonged drought conditions can significantly and repeatedly reduce diversion-dam inflows and trigger operational delivery failures across interconnected open canal networks in irrigation districts (IDist). A stakeholder-scale, map-based risk diagnostic is presented to evaluate such failures under non-standard diversion inflow (Q_div) conditions, including water shortages (WS) and inflow fluctuations (IF), at the diversion dam. The framework derives hazard likelihood from long-term diversion records by identifying and classifying WS and IF events into discrete operational scenarios. Spatially oriented, model-based procedures are then used to quantify the vulnerability of manual-based standard operating procedures (SOPs) and the associated consequences for stakeholders. Scenario impacts are evaluated using a hydraulic–operation simulator in which Integrator–Delay (ID) dynamics are coupled with manual SOP logic to determine delivered flows across the network. Consequences are summarized using a composite index obtained via PCA-based weighting of adequacy, dependability, and efficiency, enabling consistent spatial comparison of performance impacts. In parallel, a tailored vulnerability indicator is formulated to quantify manual SOP performance under WS and IF conditions and to support reproducible application in IDist with similar operational characteristics, particularly in developing-country contexts. Application is demonstrated in the Mahyar–Jarghooye IDist in arid central Iran, comprising 659 irrigated units (IUs) with defined surface water rights. Results are reported through spatial vulnerability, consequence, and risk maps that delineate localized hotspots and reveal spatial patterns of risk propagation across the canal network. Under representative IF conditions, risk shifts from localized hotspots under low IF to widespread exposure under severe WS and IF, with approximately 30–35% of units reaching 1.5–3% risk under low IF and 50–60% of the area exceeding 60% risk under high IF conditions. The resulting outputs provide actionable information for irrigation management by identifying priority units for future operational adjustment, targeted upgrading, and risk-informed planning under uncertain Q_div.</p>

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Spatial risk assessment of drought-induced operational failures in interconnected irrigation canals: application to the Mahyar–Jarghooye district, Iran

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月10日

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  • Misagh Bidabadi,
  • S. Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany,
  • Mahmoud Mashal

摘要

Prolonged drought conditions can significantly and repeatedly reduce diversion-dam inflows and trigger operational delivery failures across interconnected open canal networks in irrigation districts (IDist). A stakeholder-scale, map-based risk diagnostic is presented to evaluate such failures under non-standard diversion inflow (Q_div) conditions, including water shortages (WS) and inflow fluctuations (IF), at the diversion dam. The framework derives hazard likelihood from long-term diversion records by identifying and classifying WS and IF events into discrete operational scenarios. Spatially oriented, model-based procedures are then used to quantify the vulnerability of manual-based standard operating procedures (SOPs) and the associated consequences for stakeholders. Scenario impacts are evaluated using a hydraulic–operation simulator in which Integrator–Delay (ID) dynamics are coupled with manual SOP logic to determine delivered flows across the network. Consequences are summarized using a composite index obtained via PCA-based weighting of adequacy, dependability, and efficiency, enabling consistent spatial comparison of performance impacts. In parallel, a tailored vulnerability indicator is formulated to quantify manual SOP performance under WS and IF conditions and to support reproducible application in IDist with similar operational characteristics, particularly in developing-country contexts. Application is demonstrated in the Mahyar–Jarghooye IDist in arid central Iran, comprising 659 irrigated units (IUs) with defined surface water rights. Results are reported through spatial vulnerability, consequence, and risk maps that delineate localized hotspots and reveal spatial patterns of risk propagation across the canal network. Under representative IF conditions, risk shifts from localized hotspots under low IF to widespread exposure under severe WS and IF, with approximately 30–35% of units reaching 1.5–3% risk under low IF and 50–60% of the area exceeding 60% risk under high IF conditions. The resulting outputs provide actionable information for irrigation management by identifying priority units for future operational adjustment, targeted upgrading, and risk-informed planning under uncertain Q_div.