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<p>Oasis agriculture is vital for sustaining agricultural development in Xinjiang, where soil salinity significantly influences farmland sustainability. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of soil salinity and identifies its principal driving factors in water-saving irrigation zones of the Manas River Basin. A Random Forest (RF) model was applied to achieve reliable prediction of soil salinity dynamics, while Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) were utilized to rank the influence of key environmental and management factors. These included irrigation amount (IA), water-saving irrigation area (WSIA), underground water diversion (UWD), annual rainfall (AR), surface water diversion (SWDA), degree of mineralization of groundwater (DMG), and groundwater depth (GD). Quantitative assessments revealed that from 2013 to 2021, the area of moderately and lightly saline-alkali soils (0–100 cm depth) decreased by 9% and 41%, respectively, whereas non-saline land expanded by 50%. Soil salinity exhibited a consistent declining trend with no evidence of secondary salinization. However, the rate of salinity reduction decelerated over time: declines of 0.498–0.501 g·kg⁻<sup>1</sup> in 2013–2014 diminished to less than 0.225–0.270 g·kg⁻<sup>1</sup> during 2014–2020, and further fell below 0.145–0.155 g·kg⁻<sup>1</sup> in 2020–2021. The expansion of WSIA was correlated with increased groundwater extraction and mineralization, as well as a declining groundwater table. RF-SHAP analysis identified GD as the most influential factor in predicting salinity reduction from 2013 to 2021. Concurrently, the effects of SWDA, IA, and WSIA on salinity change grew progressively more pronounced. Although WSIA expansion was associated with heightened water extraction, the falling groundwater table played a decisive role in mitigating soil salinity, thereby supporting the gradual reclamation of saline-alkali soils in oasis agricultural systems. While this study offers valuable insights into salinity dynamics, it is constrained by limitations in data resolution and inherent model uncertainties. Future research should prioritize addressing these gaps to enable more robust and reliable interpretations.</p>

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Exploring the driving forces of soil salinity reduction using Random Forest and SHAP in water-saving oasis irrigation areas

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月10日

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  • Wenhao Li,
  • Shuanglong Gao,
  • Xiaoguo Mu,
  • Yue Wen,
  • Tehseen Javed,
  • Zhenhua Wang

摘要

Oasis agriculture is vital for sustaining agricultural development in Xinjiang, where soil salinity significantly influences farmland sustainability. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of soil salinity and identifies its principal driving factors in water-saving irrigation zones of the Manas River Basin. A Random Forest (RF) model was applied to achieve reliable prediction of soil salinity dynamics, while Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) were utilized to rank the influence of key environmental and management factors. These included irrigation amount (IA), water-saving irrigation area (WSIA), underground water diversion (UWD), annual rainfall (AR), surface water diversion (SWDA), degree of mineralization of groundwater (DMG), and groundwater depth (GD). Quantitative assessments revealed that from 2013 to 2021, the area of moderately and lightly saline-alkali soils (0–100 cm depth) decreased by 9% and 41%, respectively, whereas non-saline land expanded by 50%. Soil salinity exhibited a consistent declining trend with no evidence of secondary salinization. However, the rate of salinity reduction decelerated over time: declines of 0.498–0.501 g·kg⁻1 in 2013–2014 diminished to less than 0.225–0.270 g·kg⁻1 during 2014–2020, and further fell below 0.145–0.155 g·kg⁻1 in 2020–2021. The expansion of WSIA was correlated with increased groundwater extraction and mineralization, as well as a declining groundwater table. RF-SHAP analysis identified GD as the most influential factor in predicting salinity reduction from 2013 to 2021. Concurrently, the effects of SWDA, IA, and WSIA on salinity change grew progressively more pronounced. Although WSIA expansion was associated with heightened water extraction, the falling groundwater table played a decisive role in mitigating soil salinity, thereby supporting the gradual reclamation of saline-alkali soils in oasis agricultural systems. While this study offers valuable insights into salinity dynamics, it is constrained by limitations in data resolution and inherent model uncertainties. Future research should prioritize addressing these gaps to enable more robust and reliable interpretations.