Scholarlink

<p>Climate change would intensify water and food scarcity in arid regions. As a main cereal crop, projecting rice water consumption and yield responses to climate change is crucial for improving water management and ensuring food security. This study projected the effect of climate change on rice yield (Y), evapotranspiration (ET), and total water footprint (WF<sub>T</sub>) in Damietta, Egypt, under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP<sub>s</sub>): 2–4.5 and 5–8.5. First, five global climate models (GCMs) were evaluated for their accuracy in capturing the baseline temperatures (T) and precipitation (P<sub>r</sub>) under the SSP<sub>s</sub> scenarios. Then, AquaCrop-GIS, integrated with ensemble downscaled GCMs data, was used to project the future climate change impacts on rice Y, ET, and WF<sub>T</sub> under a 3-day irrigation frequency regime (3IF) and two SSP<sub>s</sub> and CO<sub>2</sub> emission scenarios during 2021–2099. Results indicated that GCMs accurately predicted climate variables during the baseline. Without CO<sub>2</sub>&#xa0;effect, Y would slightly increase (1.07%–3.03%) during the 2030s and 2050s but significantly decline (4.55%–18.94%) during the 2070s and 2090s under the SSP<sub>s</sub> scenarios. However, with CO<sub>2</sub>&#xa0;effect, Y would significantly increase (14.19%–28.31%) during 2021–2099. Projected ET would decline (1.42%–18.98%) under the SSP<sub>s</sub> and CO<sub>2</sub> scenarios over time. Meanwhile, without CO<sub>2</sub> effect, the WF<sub>T</sub> would increase by 2.88% to 17.13% during the 2070s and 2090s. However, with CO<sub>2</sub> effect, the WF<sub>T</sub> would decrease significantly (15.45%–34.50%) under the SSP<sub>s</sub> scenarios during the future periods. The findings help growers and policymakers develop effective water management strategies for agricultural sustainability in arid regions.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Projecting rice water footprint for different shared socioeconomic pathways under arid climate conditions

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月27日

查看全文
  • Elsayed Ahmed Elsadek,
  • Diaa Eldin M. Elshikha,
  • Ahmed Awad,
  • Yousef Alhaj Hamoud,
  • Ahmed Mohamed Elsheikha,
  • Clinton Williams,
  • Ethan Orr,
  • Hiba Shaghaleh,
  • Amar Ali Adam Hamad,
  • Kelly R. Thorp,
  • Ahmed Elbeltagi

摘要

Climate change would intensify water and food scarcity in arid regions. As a main cereal crop, projecting rice water consumption and yield responses to climate change is crucial for improving water management and ensuring food security. This study projected the effect of climate change on rice yield (Y), evapotranspiration (ET), and total water footprint (WFT) in Damietta, Egypt, under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): 2–4.5 and 5–8.5. First, five global climate models (GCMs) were evaluated for their accuracy in capturing the baseline temperatures (T) and precipitation (Pr) under the SSPs scenarios. Then, AquaCrop-GIS, integrated with ensemble downscaled GCMs data, was used to project the future climate change impacts on rice Y, ET, and WFT under a 3-day irrigation frequency regime (3IF) and two SSPs and CO2 emission scenarios during 2021–2099. Results indicated that GCMs accurately predicted climate variables during the baseline. Without CO2 effect, Y would slightly increase (1.07%–3.03%) during the 2030s and 2050s but significantly decline (4.55%–18.94%) during the 2070s and 2090s under the SSPs scenarios. However, with CO2 effect, Y would significantly increase (14.19%–28.31%) during 2021–2099. Projected ET would decline (1.42%–18.98%) under the SSPs and CO2 scenarios over time. Meanwhile, without CO2 effect, the WFT would increase by 2.88% to 17.13% during the 2070s and 2090s. However, with CO2 effect, the WFT would decrease significantly (15.45%–34.50%) under the SSPs scenarios during the future periods. The findings help growers and policymakers develop effective water management strategies for agricultural sustainability in arid regions.