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<p>The Indo–China Peninsula is a global biodiversity hotspot harboring a high diversity of endemic evergreen tree species, many of which are increasingly threatened from the combined effects of climate change and anthropogenic pressure; yet their future conservation status remains poorly understood. We used an Ensemble of Small Models (ESM) framework to project current and future climatically suitable habitats for three range-restricted evergreen tree species (<i>Quercus austrocochinchinensis, Q. kingiana</i>, and <i>Q. rex</i>) under CMIP6 scenarios, and integrated projections with the Human Footprint Index and protected–area data to quantify human disturbance, protection gaps, and spatial priorities. Under SSP5–8.5, climatically suitable habitat is projected to decline by 45–62% by the late century. Meanwhile, most suitable habitats already occur in landscapes subject to high human pressure, while protected areas cover only 12.0–25.4% of suitable habitat and are often internally disturbed. Given the magnitude of projected habitat loss, fragmentation, and limited protection, our results suggest that the extinction risk of these species may be higher than currently recognized, particularly for <i>Q. rex</i>. We propose a two-pronged conservation strategy: (i) expanding in situ protection of climatically stable, low-disturbance refugia, particularly in northern Laos and the Thai–Myanmar border mountains, and (ii) targeted ex situ conservation for recalcitrant-seeded oaks. By integrating climate-driven habitat projections, anthropogenic pressure, and protected-area coverage, our study provides a transferable framework for identifying conservation priorities for threatened tree species, and offers a scalable approach for conservation planning in biodiversity hotspots under rapid global change.</p>

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Integrating Climate Change and Human Pressure to Identify Conservation Priorities for Threatened Forest Trees in a Southeast Asian Biodiversity Hotspot

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月5日

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  • Vyan,
  • Yong-Jing-Wen Yang,
  • Kate Good,
  • Lin Lin,
  • Min Deng

摘要

The Indo–China Peninsula is a global biodiversity hotspot harboring a high diversity of endemic evergreen tree species, many of which are increasingly threatened from the combined effects of climate change and anthropogenic pressure; yet their future conservation status remains poorly understood. We used an Ensemble of Small Models (ESM) framework to project current and future climatically suitable habitats for three range-restricted evergreen tree species (Quercus austrocochinchinensis, Q. kingiana, and Q. rex) under CMIP6 scenarios, and integrated projections with the Human Footprint Index and protected–area data to quantify human disturbance, protection gaps, and spatial priorities. Under SSP5–8.5, climatically suitable habitat is projected to decline by 45–62% by the late century. Meanwhile, most suitable habitats already occur in landscapes subject to high human pressure, while protected areas cover only 12.0–25.4% of suitable habitat and are often internally disturbed. Given the magnitude of projected habitat loss, fragmentation, and limited protection, our results suggest that the extinction risk of these species may be higher than currently recognized, particularly for Q. rex. We propose a two-pronged conservation strategy: (i) expanding in situ protection of climatically stable, low-disturbance refugia, particularly in northern Laos and the Thai–Myanmar border mountains, and (ii) targeted ex situ conservation for recalcitrant-seeded oaks. By integrating climate-driven habitat projections, anthropogenic pressure, and protected-area coverage, our study provides a transferable framework for identifying conservation priorities for threatened tree species, and offers a scalable approach for conservation planning in biodiversity hotspots under rapid global change.